The US dollar started the day on a positive note, attempting once again to overtake its European counterpart. However, the euro is not giving up so easily and continues to fight for leadership in the EUR/USD pair. At the beginning of this week, the greenback retreated slightly, but quickly made up for its early losses.
According to analysts, the dollar's recent failures were temporary and were not able to drag the currency into negative territory. Neither the recent downgrade of the US credit rating nor the unstable macroeconomic data published by the US Department of Labor managed to undermine the greenback's position. In July, the US job market added 187,000 new jobs, following the 185,000 previously recorded. Although these figures fell short of the anticipated 205,000, experts assessed the overall macroeconomic outlook as positive.
Analysts often say that the Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) is one of the most unpredictable indicators. This is why any dramatic shifts in the market or any reviews of the Fed's current decision were highly unlikely. According to Austan D. Goolsbee, head of the Chicago Fed, the American job market should "find its balance" soon. The official had previously remarked that while the US labor market is cooling down, it's "still exceptionally hot."
According to estimates, overall employment growth in the US was slightly below expectations. However, the increase in wages and the decrease in unemployment rates might provide reasons for the Fed to consider another rate hike. The return of the unemployment rate to 3.5% is particularly noteworthy. Analysts believe this rate is now at cyclical lows, which continues to exert inflationary pressure. In this context, the Federal Reserve may find it hard to soften its stance, experts believe.
In addition to this, hourly wages grew more than expected (by 0.4% MoM) over the reporting period, maintaining an annual rate of 4.4% set earlier this year. With such wage growth, rates and employment figures, inflation is unlikely to ease. In the current scenario, the Fed might further tighten its monetary policy.
This sentiment is shared by Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic. Last Friday, August 4, he told Bloomberg that the central bank would maintain its restrictive monetary policy until 2024. This is crucial to achieve a target rate of 2%, the official reiterated.
Against this backdrop, the dollar has noticeably appreciated against other major currencies, primarily the yen and the euro. The greenback's strengthening was driven by the latest import and export reports from China. Official data indicates that from January to July, exports from China decreased by 5%, while imports fell by 7.6% year-on-year. Additionally, last month both indicators plunged by 14.5% and 12.4% respectively.
At the start of the week, the greenback managed to stabilize after a moment of weakness. On Tuesday morning, August 8, the EUR/USD pair was trading near 1.0997 before rising quickly to 1.1000 and breaking through it. EUR/USD is expected to hit new record highs and its next target is believed to be the 1.1100 mark.
Today, the market's focus is on significant macroeconomic data from the United States, with analysts expecting a noticeable decrease in inflation in the short term. On Thursday, August 10, the country's Department of Labor will publish these reports. According to preliminary forecasts, consumer prices in America surged by 3.3% year-over-year in July.
The data on US consumer prices will help investors assess the results of the Federal Reserve's prolonged cycle of monetary policy tightening. In addition, inflation is projected to have accelerated over the past month.
Current macro statistics will help forecast the Federal Reserve's next step and partly predict its actions at the September meeting. Meanwhile, the majority of analysts (86.5%) believe that the regulator will maintain the key rate at the current level of 5.25%-5.5%. Other experts assume there might be a slight increase.
Last week, tensions escalated in the global stock market after the deterioration of the American credit rating. Against this backdrop, market participants were seriously afraid of widespread sell-offs, but this did not happen. Moreover, the market managed to avoid the correction that many feared after a 7-month period of growth. As a result, the market found relative stability as traders and investors did not rush to lock in profits and sell securities in their portfolios.
Fitch's recent decision has not negatively affected the US currency rate. According to analysts' observations, the US dollar index (DXY) closed last week with gains, showing a short-term dip. Earlier, in August 2011, S&P Global Ratings downgraded the US credit rating amid problems with the debt ceiling. However, these actions also barely affected the national currency. Moreover, the dollar index closed 2021 with a 7% growth, and during that time, it added over 30%.
According to analysts, in the medium and long-term planning horizons, the greenback will maintain stability. A more positive scenario implies a sustained upward trend of the US dollar against the euro. According to Jane Foley, Head of Currency Market at Rabobank, the dollar is still considered a safe-haven currency "thanks to its massive share in international payments." The currency strategist at Rabobank acknowledges that the greenback may lose its dominant positions over time "but it is unlikely to happen in the next 20, 30, or 40 years."
Many specialists assume that the trajectory of the American currency will largely depend on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Besides, USD will continue to gain support thanks to the confident growth of the US economy.
