empty
19.06.2024 05:07 PM
Three reasons to buy the Australian Dollar

Disappointing statistics on retail sales in the United States and the Reserve Bank's statement on a possible increase in the cash rate allowed AUD/USD to go on a decisive offensive. The Australian dollar, supported by divergence in monetary policy, strong global risk appetite and the recovery of the Chinese economy, can work wonders. However, first, it needs to be released from the consolidation cage.

At its June meeting, the RBA left the key rate at 4.35% but noted that it was necessary to remain vigilant about inflation. Michelle Bullock said that the central bank discussed the possibility of resuming the cycle of tightening monetary policy, which allowed the futures market to increase the chances of such an outcome in August from zero to 20%. Australian bond yields and AUD/USD have risen.

While inflation is slowing in the United States and other developed countries, it is much slower in Australia. This leaves the issue of raising the cash rate open. The Fed, against the background of slowing retail sales, inflation and the economy as a whole, is likely to ease monetary policy in September. Divergence is the guiding star of AUD/USD.

Dynamics of retail sales in the USA

This image is no longer relevant

The ongoing rally of the S&P 500 and the recovery of the Chinese economy adds fuel to the fire of the potential exit of AUD/USD from consolidation in the range of 0.658-0.67 with a further continuation of the northern campaign. So, in May, retail sales in China increased by 3.7%, and exports jumped by 7.6%. Nevertheless, the improvement in the state of China's foreign trade is a double–edged sword. The EU has already imposed duties on imports of electric vehicles, and the US has recently increased them. If Donald Trump comes to power, the situation risks worsening significantly, putting pressure on the yuan and the Australian dollar.

Despite a 3.6% increase in Chinese exports to the US in May, contrary to past trends, exports to Asian and Latin American countries are accelerating. Conversely, exports to the EU and the US have slowed due to the creation of intermediate links. The most popular destinations are Mexico and Vietnam. Therefore, if Washington wants to stifle China, it should impose tariffs on imports for intermediaries.

Dynamics and Structure of Chinese Exports

This image is no longer relevant

This image is no longer relevant

Thus, the divergence in the monetary policies of the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Fed, high global risk appetite as evidenced by the S&P 500 rally, and the recovering Chinese economy create a tailwind for AUD/USD. However, the US presidential elections and the risk of Donald Trump coming to power with his protectionist policies are major restraining factors for the pair.

Technically, on the daily chart, AUD/USD shows an attempt by the bulls to break through the upper boundary of the consolidation range of 0.659-0.67. Securing quotes above the moving averages and fair value suggests that they might succeed. It makes sense to buy as long as the pair trades above 0.6645.

Marek Petkovich,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Further Tariff Concessions from Trump

According to rumors and statements from officials, U.S. President Donald Trump intends to soften automobile tariffs by supporting some changes sought by the industry. This will allow for the cancellation

Jakub Novak 18:48 2025-04-29 UTC+2

Trade Negotiations Between China and the U.S. Are Ongoing. Markets Await Results (There Is a Risk of Local Declines in EUR/USD and GBP/USD Pairs)

Markets have once again paused amid uncertainty over whether a trade agreement between the U.S. and China will be reached anytime soon. The cloud of uncertainty that Donald Trump

Pati Gani 10:04 2025-04-29 UTC+2

The Market Has Licked Its Wounds

The market always keeps us engaged. Despite all the gloomy talk of recession, trade wars, supply shortages, inflation, and layoffs, the S&P 500 has declined by just a little over

Marek Petkovich 09:10 2025-04-29 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on April 29? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Very few macroeconomic events are scheduled for Tuesday, and none are significant. If we set aside all the tertiary reports, such as the GfK Consumer Confidence Index in Germany

Paolo Greco 07:00 2025-04-29 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – April 29: Are Labor Market and Unemployment Data Important?

On Monday, the GBP/USD currency pair also traded with low volatility and mainly moved sideways, although the British pound maintained a slight upward bias. Despite the lack of market-relevant news

Paolo Greco 04:33 2025-04-29 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – April 29: The Weak Yield, the Strong Resist

On Monday, the EUR/USD currency pair remained immobilized. There were no updates over the weekend from Donald Trump regarding trade developments, and no important data or events were scheduled

Paolo Greco 04:33 2025-04-29 UTC+2

The Euro Looks for a Basis for Another Upward Surge

Business activity indices in the eurozone are declining amid heightened uncertainty. The composite index in April fell from 50.9 to 50.1, nearing contraction territory. At the same time, Germany's

Kuvat Raharjo 00:54 2025-04-29 UTC+2

The Dollar Continues to Sell Off, Outlook Remains Weak

As shown by the latest CFTC report, U.S. dollar futures indicate a further deterioration in its outlook. During the reporting week, the net short position on the USD increased

Kuvat Raharjo 00:54 2025-04-29 UTC+2

Bitcoin Can't Lose

There's never a dull moment with Bitcoin. Sometimes it behaves like a risky asset, sometimes like a safe haven. At the beginning of April, the cryptocurrency was jokingly referred

Marek Petkovich 19:03 2025-04-28 UTC+2

The Market Has Outplayed the Professionals

"Follow the smart money" — this classic principle of technical analysis suggests it's safer to side with professionals rather than the crowd. However, in 2025, such an approach would have

Marek Petkovich 19:00 2025-04-28 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.