empty
04.12.2024 01:28 PM
USD/JPY: Positive Dynamics of the USD/JPY Pair Does Not Equal a Positive Forecast

This image is no longer relevant

Today, the USD/JPY pair is gaining strong positive momentum, supported by a rebound from the 148.60 level, which is its lowest level since October 11th. However, the potential for growth seems limited.

It seems that investors are convinced that the Federal Reserve will take a more cautious approach to lowering interest rates, amid expectations that the policies of newly elected US President Donald Trump will lead to rising inflation. Such expectations are driving US Treasury yields higher. This is a key factor pulling funds away from the low-yielding Japanese yen, supporting the US dollar, and providing additional momentum for the USD/JPY pair.

However, dollar bulls are hesitant to open aggressive positions, preferring to wait for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech to gather more information on the future path of interest rate cuts. Additionally, according to the CPI – November's consumer price index for Tokyo, published last week – it is clear that core inflation is picking up, fueling speculation that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates again in December. This is helping to limit further upside for the USD/JPY pair.

Traders should watch for the release of the US ADP report on private sector employment for potential trading opportunities. However, the main focus should be on the official monthly employment data or Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which will guide the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions. This, in turn, will stimulate demand for the US dollar and determine the short-term trajectory of the USD/JPY pair.

From a technical standpoint, oscillators on the daily chart have not yet left negative territory, suggesting caution before opening new positions.

Irina Yanina,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Today, gold is attracting new sellers. Amid a sharp escalation in the conflict between Iran and Israel, the United States conducted airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities in Fordow, Natanz

Irina Yanina 17:59 2025-06-23 UTC+2

USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast. The Japanese Yen Maintains an Intraday Bearish Outlook

Today, Monday, selling pressure on the Japanese yen dominates, driven by several factors. Traders continue to push back expectations of a potential rate hike by the Bank of Japan, assuming

Irina Yanina 17:56 2025-06-23 UTC+2

USD/CHF. Analysis and Forecast

At the moment, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has reached a new two-week high, driven by hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve. The U.S. central bank has maintained its forecast

Irina Yanina 17:51 2025-06-23 UTC+2

Bitcoin longing for new highs, but something stymies

Bitcoin was created as a way to preserve value in times of turmoil, especially against the backdrop of weakening fiat currencies. It was believed that the arrival of institutional investors

Marek Petkovich 12:23 2025-06-23 UTC+2

Market fears retaliation

Hope for the best, prepare for the worst. Since the onset of the Israel-Iran conflict, the market seems to have largely ignored the severity of the situation. Investor reaction

Marek Petkovich 10:36 2025-06-23 UTC+2

The U.S. Joins the Iran-Israel War. What's Next for the Markets? (Limited downside potential for #NDX and #SPX contracts possible)

The United States could not abandon its satellite and Middle Eastern proxy—Israel—to face Iran alone. On Sunday, it struck Iran's nuclear facilities, though these strikes failed to achieve their objectives

Pati Gani 09:51 2025-06-23 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on June 23? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

A significant number of macroeconomic reports are set for Monday, though they share a similar nature. Business activity indices for June's services and manufacturing sectors will be released in Germany

Paolo Greco 06:51 2025-06-23 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – June 23: Geopolitics vs. Economy

The GBP/USD currency pair traded sluggishly throughout Friday, but one technical factor is worth noting: the price failed to consolidate above the moving average. Thus, technical analysis currently suggests

Paolo Greco 03:50 2025-06-23 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – June 23: The U.S. Has Officially Entered the War Against Iran

The EUR/USD currency pair traded with minimal volatility and no clear direction throughout Friday. The upward trend remains intact without any doubt. However, a significant strengthening of the U.S. dollar

Paolo Greco 03:50 2025-06-23 UTC+2

US-EU Negotiations on the Verge of Collapse

As anticipated, this phrase can describe nearly every action taken by Donald Trump. I have consistently argued that the core of any negotiations involving Trump comes down to this

Chin Zhao 00:13 2025-06-23 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.