empty
26.03.2025 03:40 AM
EUR/USD Pair Overview – March 26: No News, No Movement

This image is no longer relevant

The EUR/USD currency pair traded with low volatility on Tuesday. There have been times when the euro would crawl just 40 pips a day, and while current volatility isn't extremely low, it's certainly not high either. The price has settled below the moving average—and, miracle of miracles!—it has remained below it for three days. As a result, the U.S. dollar has appreciated slightly over the past few days.

However, every trader understands that the dollar only strengthens within a modest corrective phase. The technical picture is contradictory if you try to piece together all the timeframes. According to classic technical analysis, one should start with the higher timeframes. So, let's look at the monthly chart—what do we see? A 16-year downtrend that shows no signs of ending. On the weekly chart—same story. There is also a downtrend on the daily chart, as the last downward wave was stronger than the previous and subsequent corrections. So, the three highest timeframes suggest that the dollar will continue to strengthen.

Of course, any trend eventually ends, but we keep returning to the same question: what could drive the euro to rise to $1.15 or even $1.25? After all, we're talking about global trends here, not 200-pip moves. And for a 1,000–1,500 pip rise, Donald Trump alone won't be enough. The euro needs broader growth drivers.

In recent weeks, the dollar's decline has been driven solely by "Donald Trump." Of course, the U.S. president can keep dragging the dollar down, primarily since it benefits him. However, this would mean the market will continue to ignore all factors except Trump's trade policy.

To recap, the U.S. economy began slowing in the fourth quarter of last year and will likely continue to slow in 2025. But even with that slowdown, it's still growing much faster than the European or British economies. The Federal Reserve has not cut rates and is unlikely to implement more than two rate cuts in 2025—an outcome far more hawkish than markets anticipated last year. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank might lower rates even below 2%. The ECB needs to stimulate the economy, whereas Jerome Powell claims there are no problems with the U.S. economy.

So, if not for Donald Trump and his radical, unconventional decisions, we would still expect the U.S. dollar to rise. However, the market continues to interpret fundamentals and macroeconomics through a one-sided lens. And we, in turn, must draw traders' attention to this obvious fact. The euro might continue to rise simply because anything is possible in the market. But there are no clear or compelling reasons for such growth.

This image is no longer relevant

The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last five trading days (as of March 26) is 77 pips, which is considered "moderate." We expect the pair to trade between 1.0732 and 1.0886 on Wednesday. The long-term regression channel has turned upward, but the global downtrend remains intact, as seen in higher timeframes. The CCI indicator has not recently entered overbought or oversold territory.

Nearest Support Levels:

S1 – 1.0742

S2 – 1.0620

S3 – 1.0498

Nearest Resistance Levels:

R1 – 1.0864

R2 – 1.0986

Trading Recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair has started a weak downward correction. For months, we've consistently stated that we expect a medium-term decline in the euro, and that view remains unchanged. The dollar still has no reason to fall in the medium term—other than Donald Trump. Short positions remain far more attractive, with targets at 1.0315 and 1.0254, though it is difficult to say when this irrational upward movement will finally end. If you're trading based purely on technicals, long positions may be considered if the price rises above the moving average, with a target of 1.0986.

Explanation of Illustrations:

Linear Regression Channels help determine the current trend. If both channels are aligned, it indicates a strong trend.

Moving Average Line (settings: 20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and guides the trading direction.

Murray Levels act as target levels for movements and corrections.

Volatility Levels (red lines) represent the likely price range for the pair over the next 24 hours based on current volatility readings.

CCI Indicator: If it enters the oversold region (below -250) or overbought region (above +250), it signals an impending trend reversal in the opposite direction.

Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

What to Pay Attention to on June 5? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

There are very few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Thursday. Only two secondary reports from the UK and the US are all traders will get today. The construction sector activity report

Paolo Greco 06:39 2025-06-05 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – June 5: Britain Is America's Best Friend, but Still Has to Pay

The GBP/USD currency pair traded rather calmly on Wednesday, as there were few important events and reports during the day. As we expected, the business activity indices (excluding ISM)

Paolo Greco 03:52 2025-06-05 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – June 5: Trump Will Continue Pressuring the EU

The EUR/USD currency pair traded very calmly on Wednesday. As we mentioned yesterday, there was no reason to expect the business activity indices to influence trading — especially the European

Paolo Greco 03:52 2025-06-05 UTC+2

Trump Once Again Fails to Persuade Powell

Donald Trump and Jerome Powell held a meeting at the White House last week. This news went largely unnoticed due to the scant details provided. Only general information about

Chin Zhao 00:38 2025-06-05 UTC+2

EUR/USD. June ECB Meeting: Preview

On Thursday, the European Central Bank will announce the results of its next meeting. Although the formal outcomes of the June meeting are virtually predetermined, the future prospects for further

Irina Manzenko 00:38 2025-06-05 UTC+2

The Dollar Returns to the Battlefield

When there is no unity among allies, things don't go smoothly. Following mutual accusations between the U.S. and China, Donald Trump commented that Xi Jinping is a very tough

Marek Petkovich 00:38 2025-06-05 UTC+2

Is This the Right Time for Christine Lagarde to Leave Her Post?

While the euro shows no intention of yielding to the U.S. dollar, Christine Lagarde is about to face criticism over her intention to continue leading the European Central Bank

Jakub Novak 13:35 2025-06-04 UTC+2

USD/CAD. Analysis and Forecast

The USD/CAD pair remains in a sideways consolidation near its lowest levels since October 2024. Market participants are awaiting the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision, which will be announced

Irina Yanina 09:57 2025-06-04 UTC+2

The Stock Market Believes Trump's Tariff Game Won't Have a Major Impact (Growth in #NDX and #SPX CFDs May Continue)

After a sharp, almost catastrophic drop in March and April, the major U.S. stock indices recovered in May, fully offsetting the decline. Confidence is growing among market participants that this

Pati Gani 09:53 2025-06-04 UTC+2

The Market Is Playing a Dangerous Game

Is the market only hearing what it wants to hear? Or is it simply playing the "buy the dip" game? According to Nomura, buying the S&P 500 five days after

Marek Petkovich 09:27 2025-06-04 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.