Forex Analysis & Reviews: 26.03.2025 - Donald Trump sows confusion...

26.03.2025 12:36 PM

Donald Trump sows confusion again with tariff remarks

United States President Donald Trump once again stirred confusion on Tuesday by announcing plans to introduce a series of exemptions to his sweeping tariff proposal. The announcement served as a vague signal ahead of the planned April 2 rollout of retaliatory trade measures against global partners.

These exemptions are expected to apply to certain United States trading partners, although the exact details remain unclear. President Trump's remarks followed several days of intense lobbying by foreign governments and American businesses that are concerned about the negative consequences of the tariff measures. Analysts believe the President may be preparing to moderate his stance in order to avoid a full-scale trade conflict that could pose a threat to global economic stability.

At the same time, officials within the Trump administration continue to emphasize that tariffs remain a vital instrument for defending American interests and for pressuring other nations to agree to more equitable trade arrangements.

It is evident that the United States' trade partners have worked swiftly to secure exemptions from the tariffs, which President Trump has placed at the center of his economic platform. "I know there are some exceptions, and it's an ongoing discussion, but not too many, not too many exceptions," Trump states.

President Trump has promised to impose broad trade tariffs as early as next Wednesday, describing the move as a "liberation day" from trade partners that he has long accused of exploiting the United States. While he had stated previously that his retaliatory tariffs would be carefully calibrated to balance other countries' trade barriers, the president also acknowledged that his actions would not be purely reciprocal and that some nations could receive relief.

On Monday, the White House stated that the president might grant exemptions to several countries. However, his conflicting statements regarding tariff plans have sown confusion among investors and corporations, placing pressure on risk assets and halting the recent gains in the stock market that followed a significant sell-off earlier in the month. "I'll probably be more lenient than reciprocal, because if I was reciprocal, that would be very tough for people," the president reiterated.

Currency traders have become accustomed to this type of political messaging and are increasingly focused on economic data and central bank decisions, rather than the shifting strategy of the American leadership. This change in approach reflects the understanding that economic fundamentals exert a more immediate and measurable influence on currency valuations.

In particular, inflation figures, employment data, and GDP growth reports from major economies have become key indicators for evaluating the outlook of national currencies. Central bank decisions, including interest rate changes and broader monetary policy measures, also play a decisive role, as they directly affect the appeal of a currency to global investors.

Regarding the current technical picture for EUR/USD, buyers have now faced the challenge of reclaiming the 1.0818 level. A successful move above this threshold would allow for a test of 1.0856. From there, the path may open to 1.0892, although advancing further without support from institutional players may prove difficult. The most distant bullish target remains at 1.0923. If the instrument declines, serious buyer interest is expected near 1.0779. Should that level fail to hold, it may be advisable to wait for a retest of the 1.0746 low or to consider entering long positions from 1.0715.

In the case of GBP/USD, buyers should overcome the immediate resistance at 1.2950. Only a breakout above this level would create an opportunity to reach 1.2970, though breaking through this area is expected to be challenging. The furthest upside objective is the 1.2999 area. If the pair falls, sellers may attempt to reclaim control at 1.2925. A successful breach of this level could severely undermine the bullish outlook and push the pair toward the 1.2900 low, with the potential to extend losses toward 1.2875.

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*Disclaimer: The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.