empty
InstaForex - Official partner of Dragon Racing
InstaForex - Official partner of Dragon Racing
This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.
Start as Beginner
How to start trading
Useful information
Training and recordings
InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.
Become Investor
PAMM System
ForexCopy System
Passive investments
Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.
Become Partner
Main Page
Partner Area
Advantages for Affiliates
Registration
This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.
All Promo Campaigns
Bonuses
Contests
Events
Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.
Full details
Forums
We are in social networks
Forex humour
Forex Portal
InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.
Learn More
History
Why Choose Us
InstaSport
Regulation
Company News
Awards
InstaForex Stars
InstaForex Offline
Headquarters
Key documents
Social Responsibility
11.02.2025 08:35 AM
Wave analysis of BTC/USD on February 11. Bitcoin trapped in range-bound market
Open trading account Open demo account

This image is no longer relevant

The wave structure of the 4-hour chart for BTC/USD appears completely clear. After a long and complex a-b-c-d-e corrective structure, which formed between March 14 and August 5, a new impulse wave began to develop, already taking a five-wave form. Judging by the size of the first wave, the fifth wave might turn out to be shortened. Based on this, I do not expect Bitcoin to rise above $110,000 - $115,000 in the coming months.

Additionally, wave 4 has taken on a three-wave structure, confirming the accuracy of the current wave count. The news environment has supported Bitcoin's rally due to continuous inflows of investments from institutional traders, governments of some countries, and pension funds. However, Trump's policies could force investors to exit the market, and an uptrend cannot last forever.

Currently, the structure of wave 2 within wave 5 raises doubts about whether it is actually wave 2 of 5. I tend to believe that the bullish trend is nearing its end.

Bitcoin gets stuck in limited trading range

BTC/USD rose by $2,500 on Monday. However, Bitcoin remains within a sideways range, and that is the most important factor right now. Of course, there are significant movements within this $20,000 range, but there is no clear trend at the moment.

According to the current wave count, the bullish phase is over. I still believe we are at the beginning of a complex and prolonged correction or a new bearish trend.

On Monday, there was practically no significant news, but a few noteworthy events occurred. However, the market barely reacted to them. I don't see a direct connection between Trump's new tariffs and the rise of either the dollar or Bitcoin. Both the dollar and Bitcoin are rising on such news, which contradicts common sense.

Nevertheless, some may argue that Bitcoin's growth was fueled by Trump's tariffs, but this time, the increase was minimal.

Monetary policy is more important than Trump's tariffs.

Currently, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy plays a more significant role. For the past two years, the market has been actively investing in Bitcoin and stocks, anticipating a dovish Fed policy. In simple terms: the lower the Fed's interest rates, the lower the returns on bank deposits, bonds, and other "safe" instruments. Therefore, capital has been flowing from safe assets into riskier ones for the past two years. However, the Federal Reserve has been cutting rates for six months now, so the capital rotation should have already ended.

When Trump returned to power, he made many pledges regarding cryptocurrency, including:

  • To improve cryptocurrency regulation
  • To create a national Bitcoin reserve

Yet, none of these promises have been fulfilled so far.

As a result, Bitcoin currently lacks solid reasons to enter a new bullish cycle without a proper corrective structure.

This image is no longer relevant

Key takeaways

Based on the wave analysis of BTC/USD, I conclude that the asset's growth is nearing its completion. The fifth wave could be shortened, which is an unpopular opinion but remains a valid possibility. If this assumption is correct, we are in for a collapse or a complex correction. Buying Bitcoin right now is not advisable. In the near future, Bitcoin could drop below the low of wave 4, confirming the transition to a new bearish trend. On a higher wave scale, we still see a five-wave bullish structure, but a corrective or bearish structure is likely to form soon.

Key principles of my analysis:

  • Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex patterns are difficult to trade and often change.
  • If you are uncertain about the market trend, it's better to stay out.
  • There is no 100% certainty in price direction. Always use Stop Loss orders to protect your positions.
  • Wave analysis can be combined with other analytical methods and trading strategies for a more comprehensive approach.
Chin Zhao,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
All Analytics
Forecast
Intraday Strategies for Beginner Traders on June 17 Pressure on risky assets returned in the afternoon of the U.S. session. This occurred right after euro and pound buyers failed to push prices to new monthly highs despite strong
Miroslaw Bawulski
08:23 2025-06-17 +02:00
1105
Technical analysis
Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of GBP/JPY Cross Currency Pairs, Tuesday June 17, 2025 If we look at the 4-hour chart, the GBP/JPY cross currency pair is seen moving in a Bullish bias, which is confirmed by its price movement which is moving
Arief Makmur
06:38 2025-06-17 +02:00
1255
Breaking Forecast Trading Plan Cryptocurrencies USD/RUB Russian Economy Video Analysis
Trading Instruments
EURUSD GBPUSD USDCHF USDCAD USDJPY AUDUSD EURGBP EURJPY NZDUSD EURNZD Silver Gold #CL #USDX COVID-19 Bitcoin
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

What are odds of BTC trading at $150K by August?

For several days, Bitcoin hovered above the $105,000 level, seemingly waiting. But today, it broke through. We've witnessed a classic consolidation phase ahead of a possible price surge
Ekaterina Kiseleva 17:22 2025-06-16 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on June 16

Bitcoin and Ethereum regained their positions following a major sell-off at the end of last week, which occurred after the outbreak of the military conflict between Iran and Israel. This
Miroslaw Bawulski 08:55 2025-06-16 UTC+2

The Cryptocurrency Market Collapsed — Here's Why

Bitcoin and Ethereum have crashed. Bitcoin lost around 3.5% during morning trading alone, while Ethereum dropped by more than 10%, then slightly rebounded. Panic swept through the cryptocurrency market immediately
Jakub Novak 11:12 2025-06-13 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on June 13

Bitcoin and Ethereum plunged following Israel's overnight strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, triggering a massive sell-off of risk assets, including in the cryptocurrency market. Should Iran launch a serious retaliatory
Miroslaw Bawulski 09:04 2025-06-13 UTC+2

Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of Filecoin Cryptocurrency, Friday June 13, 2025.

Not much different from other cryptocurrencies such as Solana, Filecoin also has almost similar conditions on its 4-hour chart where there is a Divergence between the Filecoin price movement
Arief Makmur 07:39 2025-06-13 UTC+2

Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of Solana Cryptocurrency, Friday June 13, 2025.

With the appearance of Divergence between the price movement of the Solana cryptocurrency on its 4-hour chart, with the Stochastic Oscillator indicator and confirmed by the labeling of its price
Arief Makmur 07:39 2025-06-13 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on June 12

Bitcoin and Ethereum experienced a notable pullback after another unsuccessful attempt to rally. Bitcoin could not retest its all-time high, and Ethereum could not surpass the $2900 mark. U.S. Treasury
Miroslaw Bawulski 09:10 2025-06-12 UTC+2

Solana spot ETF around corner

Right now, Solana is in the spotlight for traders. According to the latest reports, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has requested that potential Solana ETF issuers submit amended
Jakub Novak 16:23 2025-06-11 UTC+2

The Crypto Winter Is Becoming a Thing of the Past

Bitcoin is showing strong growth and came within a step of reaching a new all-time high. However, it's important to understand that taking this final step will be quite challenging
Jakub Novak 10:18 2025-06-11 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on June 11

Bitcoin is undergoing a correction following yesterday's rapid surge to the $110,500 area, while Ethereum remains vibrant—having gained over 6% yesterday and currently trading at $2,785. Given such a strong
Miroslaw Bawulski 09:01 2025-06-11 UTC+2

Top analytics

Relevance up to 21:00 2025-06-17 UTC--5
EUR/USD Forecast for June 17, 2025
04:51 2025-06-17
Technical analysis
Relevance up to 20:00 2025-06-17 UTC--5
Trading Recommendations and Analysis for EUR/USD on June 17: Geopolitics Played Its Part
03:49 2025-06-17
Trading plan
Relevance up to 20:00 2025-06-17 UTC--5
EUR/USD Overview – June 17: Safe-Haven Status No Longer Works
03:49 2025-06-17
Fundamental analysis
Relevance up to 21:00 2025-06-17 UTC--5
GBP/USD Forecast for June 17, 2025
04:48 2025-06-17
Technical analysis
Relevance up to 20:00 2025-06-17 UTC--5
GBP/USD Overview – June 17: Fed and BoE Meetings as a Reason to Sell the Dollar
03:49 2025-06-17
Fundamental analysis
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
Callback widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.