empty
31.03.2025 06:28 AM
EUR/USD. Hello, April: Eurozone Inflation Report, ISM Indices, and Nonfarm Payrolls

The first week of every month is the most informative for EUR/USD traders. The economic calendar traditionally includes a report on inflation growth in the eurozone, American ISM indices, and key data on the US labor market. April is no exception, meaning the upcoming week promises to be interesting and volatile.

Monday

Important macroeconomic indicators will be published in China during the Asian session on Monday, which may trigger volatility in the EUR/USD pair if they significantly deviate from forecasts. The Chinese manufacturing PMI is expected to remain in expansion territory, rising from 50.2 in February to 50.4 in March. If contrary to expectations, the figure drops below 50.0, risk-off sentiment will increase, potentially benefiting the safe-haven U.S. dollar. The non-manufacturing PMI is also expected to remain in expansion territory at 50.5, up slightly from 50.4.

This image is no longer relevant

During the European session, key inflation data from Germany will be released. The overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to slow slightly in March: after coming in at 2.3% y/y for the past two months, it is projected to dip to 2.1%. The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) declined from 2.8% to 2.6% in February and is expected to fall further to 2.5% in March. Since German inflation data often correlates with broader Eurozone trends (Eurozone CPI will be released the next day), the euro will likely react in line with whether the data beats or misses expectations.

Tuesday

Tuesday's key events include the Eurozone CPI report and the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index. Most experts forecast that inflation in the Eurozone will slow further in March. The headline CPI rose from October through January, reaching 2.5%, before easing to 2.3% in February. It's expected to edge closer to the European Central Bank's target in March at 2.2%. The core CPI is also forecast to drop to 2.5%—its lowest since February 2022.

Last week, ECB Governing Council member Piero Cipollone stated that many of his colleagues "see increasing arguments for lowering interest rates." He cited falling energy prices, rising real interest rates, euro appreciation, and the risk of a trade war with the U.S. If inflation slows in March, this could further support the case for monetary easing at the ECB's April meeting. Conversely, an unexpected acceleration in inflation would boost the euro.

During the U.S. session on Tuesday, we'll see the March ISM Manufacturing Index. A decline is expected. Most analysts predict it will fall below the 50.0 threshold to 49.6 after spending two months above the expansion/contraction line. Such a result would put significant pressure on the dollar amid growing concerns about a U.S. economic slowdown.

Wednesday

Wednesday's economic calendar is relatively light for EUR/USD traders. The ADP employment report will be the main focus as an early indicator for the official jobs report. According to forecasts, U.S. nonfarm private payrolls will rise by only 118,000—another weak result that doesn't bode well for Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls, even if the correlation isn't perfect.

Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler is also scheduled to speak on Wednesday. Last week, she noted that progress toward the inflation target has slowed since last summer, and recent data showed "some signs of weakness." If she again highlights downside risks to the U.S. economy, the dollar could come under pressure.

Thursday

Final March PMI data for France, Germany, and the Eurozone will be published. The consensus is that the final numbers will match preliminary estimates. The release will only impact EUR/USD if there are significant revisions.

The U.S. will publish the ISM Services Index, which is expected to remain in expansion territory but dip from 53.5 to 53.0. For dollar bulls, the index must stay above 50.0, especially considering the anticipated decline in the manufacturing ISM.

Key Fed speakers on Thursday include Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and Governor Lisa Cook.

Friday

On Friday, all eyes will be on the U.S. labor market report for March. Preliminary forecasts are not favorable for the dollar. Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to rise by only 139,000, following a weak 150,000 increase in February. The unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.1%. However, average hourly earnings are expected to slow to 3.9%, down from 4.0%. The labor force participation rate is also forecast to decline to 62.2%—its lowest since December 2022.

If the March jobs report merely meets expectations (let alone misses), the dollar could come under renewed pressure amid growing recession fears and ahead of the next round of tariff escalation.

Conclusions

The first week of April promises to be eventful and volatile. Key macroeconomic reports may trigger intense price swings, and based on preliminary forecasts, these swings are unlikely to favor the dollar.

In addition, on April 2–3, the U.S. is expected to implement new "reciprocal" and "automobile" tariffs. The keyword here is "expected," as Donald Trump could postpone or soften the announced measures at the last minute. If that happens, the dollar will receive strong support. But if the tariffs are implemented as planned, markets will again focus on the negative consequences of trade tensions—even for the U.S. economy. In that case, the dollar could once again fall out of favor.

From a technical standpoint, in the H4 timeframe, EUR/USD trades at the upper line of the Bollinger Bands and above the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines, but still below the Kumo cloud. It is reasonable to consider long positions only after the pair breaks and consolidates above the resistance level at 1.0840 (Tenkan-sen on D1). The first (and currently only) upside target is 1.0910—the upper Bollinger Band line on D1. In my view, short positions are inherently risky (sellers failed to hold the pair within the 1.07 zone last week), but the 1.0730 mark (lower Bollinger Band on H4) is a key indicator for downside potential.

Irina Manzenko,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

AUD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

The AUD/JPY pair is regaining positive momentum after a modest pullback the previous day. However, spot prices remain confined within a multi-day range due to mixed fundamental signals, trading near

Irina Yanina 14:39 2025-06-20 UTC+2

USD/CHF: The Pair Struggles to Gain Momentum Amid Conflicting Forces

At present, USD/CHF shows no clear intraday direction and fluctuates within a narrow range just above the 0.8155 level, reflecting market uncertainty during the European session. The Swiss franc

Irina Yanina 14:36 2025-06-20 UTC+2

The Euro Will Retain Its Strength and Investor Interest

During her speech, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva stated that she sees the potential for the euro to play a broader role globally.Her remarks came amid growing geopolitical instability

Jakub Novak 11:25 2025-06-20 UTC+2

Euro Slightly Rises After Lagarde's Speech

The euro saw a modest recovery after European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde stated that expanding trade within the region could help offset losses resulting from global fragmentation. Her optimistic

Jakub Novak 11:10 2025-06-20 UTC+2

Donald Trump – A Mastermind of Geopolitical Uncertainty (A Potential Correction in Oil and Gold Prices)

Six months into Donald Trump's presidency, it seems he has already thoroughly exhausted the world with his "brilliant" initiatives, groundbreaking actions aimed at making America great again, and his vivid

Pati Gani 09:49 2025-06-20 UTC+2

The Market Tries to Extinguish the Fire

Markets are digesting Donald Trump's announcement that a decision on U.S. strikes against Iran will be made within two weeks. The White House could have acted at any moment

Marek Petkovich 09:01 2025-06-20 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on June 20? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

There are very few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Friday. The only report of the day will be the UK retail sales report. No economic data will be released today

Paolo Greco 07:45 2025-06-20 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – June 20: The Bank of England Didn't Surprise

The GBP/USD currency pair traded relatively calmly on Thursday, given the fundamental backdrop available to the market. On Wednesday evening, the Federal Reserve announced the results of its latest meeting

Paolo Greco 07:16 2025-06-20 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – June 20: Summing Up the Fed Meeting

The EUR/USD currency pair traded relatively calmly on Wednesday and Thursday. Recall that the results of the latest 2025 Federal Reserve meeting were announced on Wednesday evening, but we didn't

Paolo Greco 07:16 2025-06-20 UTC+2

USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

The Japanese yen is showing weakness against the stronger U.S. dollar, with the USD/JPY pair reaching a new monthly high. This rise in the dollar against the yen is mainly

Irina Yanina 20:12 2025-06-19 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.