empty
01.04.2025 11:32 AM
EUR/USD. April 1. Traders Are Confused and Unwilling to Take Risks

On Monday, the EUR/USD pair continued its upward movement and even rebounded from the support zone at 1.0781–1.0797. However, believing in a further rise of the euro is becoming increasingly difficult. According to wave analysis, the trend has turned bearish, meaning we should expect a decline. The recent growth of the pair is merely a corrective pullback. Therefore, I expect a consolidation below the 1.0781–1.0797 zone and a further fall toward the Fibonacci levels at 1.0734 and 1.0622.

This image is no longer relevant

The wave pattern on the hourly chart has shifted. The last completed upward wave barely broke the previous high, and the most recent downward wave broke below the previous low. Thus, the waves currently indicate a trend reversal to the bearish side. Donald Trump introduced new tariffs last week, which caused the bears to retreat again. Trump is likely to impose more tariffs this week, allowing the bulls another attempt at an advance. However, bulls are weakening with each passing day.

The fundamental backdrop on Monday did not support the bulls. Retail sales in Germany exceeded expectations, but the more important inflation report showed a slowdown to 2.2% y/y. While this figure matched forecasts, the fact that inflation is now nearing the ECB's target level cannot be overlooked. This suggests the ECB's monetary policy may become even more dovish—bad news for the euro. Trump's trade wars have been supporting the bulls for several weeks, but that alone is not enough to sustain continued euro purchases and dollar selling. Traders have already priced in the tariff news, and now other economic drivers are needed for this strategy to remain viable. At the moment, there are none. A large volume of important statistics will be released this week, starting in just a few hours with eurozone inflation data. If inflation also slows, the bears will resume their attack.

This image is no longer relevant

On the 4-hour chart, the pair made a slight upward move, but I expect a new reversal in favor of the U.S. dollar and a further decline toward the 50.0% correction level at 1.0696 and the 38.2% level at 1.0575. While a major drop in the euro is unlikely for now, a 200-point decline would still be timely. No divergence signals are observed on any indicators today.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

This image is no longer relevant

During the most recent reporting week, professional traders opened 844 new long positions and closed 5,256 short positions. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group turned bullish again—thanks to Donald Trump. The total number of long positions held by speculators is now 190,000, while short positions have decreased to 124,000.

For twenty weeks in a row, large players had been offloading euros, but for the past seven weeks, they've been reducing short positions and building long ones. While the divergence in ECB and Fed monetary policy continues to favor the U.S. dollar, Trump's policy is becoming a more influential factor for traders, as it may have a dovish impact on the FOMC's approach and even lead to a recession in the U.S. economy.

News Calendar for the U.S. and Eurozone:

  • Eurozone – German Manufacturing PMI (07:55 UTC)
  • Eurozone – Manufacturing PMI (08:00 UTC)
  • Eurozone – Consumer Price Index (09:00 UTC)
  • Eurozone – Speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde (12:30 UTC)
  • U.S. – S&P Manufacturing PMI (13:45 UTC)
  • U.S. – ISM Manufacturing PMI (14:00 UTC)
  • U.S. – JOLTS Job Openings (14:00 UTC)

On April 1, the economic calendar includes a large number of important events at various times throughout the day. The fundamental backdrop may strongly influence market sentiment all day long.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trader Recommendations:

Selling the pair is possible today after a bounce from the 1.0857 level on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.0797 and 1.0734, or after a close below the 1.0781–1.0797 zone. Buying will be possible after a bounce from the 1.0781–1.0797 zone on the hourly chart with a target at 1.0857.

Fibonacci levels are drawn from 1.0529–1.0213 on the hourly chart and from 1.1214–1.0179 on the 4-hour chart.

Samir Klishi,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Forex forecast 26/06/2025: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USDX, Oil and Ethereum

Useful links: My other articles are available in this section InstaForex course for beginners Popular Analytics Open trading account Important: The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful

Sebastian Seliga 12:18 2025-06-26 UTC+2

EUR/USD – June 26th. Powell's Rhetoric Remains Unchanged

On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair continued to rise and reached the 127.2% Fibonacci corrective level at 1.1712 on Thursday morning. A rebound from this level could lead to a reversal

Samir Klishi 11:17 2025-06-26 UTC+2

GBP/USD. June 26th. Will the U.S. GDP Report Change Anything?

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Wednesday secured a position above the resistance zone of 1.3611–1.3633 and continued its upward movement toward the next Fibonacci level of 200.0%

Samir Klishi 10:48 2025-06-26 UTC+2

GOLD. Why Is Gold Rising Again?

The yellow metal is once again receiving support driven by two main factors. The first is the continued risk of failure in the negotiations between Tehran and Tel Aviv

Pati Gani 09:21 2025-06-26 UTC+2

USD/CAD continues to weaken even though there is a potential for a re-test at its Dynamic Resistance, Thursday, June 26, 2025.

USD/CAD – Thursday, June 26 2025. USD/CAD is moving in a weakening condition even though there is a potential for strengthening to the extent of a retracement. Key Levels

Arief Makmur 05:11 2025-06-26 UTC+2

EUR/GBP has the potential to test the Resistance level. 1 before returning to its initial bias, Thursday, June 26, 2025.

EUR/GBP – Thursday, June 26 2025. EUR/GBP is currently moving in a weakening condition but there is potential for a strengthening correction. Key Levels 1. Resistance. 2 : 0.85538

Arief Makmur 05:11 2025-06-26 UTC+2

EUR/USD Forecast for June 26, 2025

EUR/USD Yesterday's data on new home sales in the U.S. for May turned out worse than expected — 623,000 units were sold versus a forecast of 694,000, and the April

Laurie Bailey 05:11 2025-06-26 UTC+2

GBP/USD Forecast for June 26, 2025

GBP/USD With the British pound's active rise this morning, the price consolidation above 1.3635 on the daily chart can be considered confirmed. This opens the path to targets at 1.3834

Laurie Bailey 04:57 2025-06-26 UTC+2

EUR/NZD Forecast for June 26, 2025

EUR/NZD On the weekly chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator has turned upward from the border of the bearish territory. The last time a similar pattern occurred (a

Laurie Bailey 04:57 2025-06-26 UTC+2

Trading Signals for EUR/USD for June 25-28, 2025: sell below 1.1645 (21 SMA - 7/8 Murray)

Early in the American session, the EUR/USD pair is trading around 1.1623 within the uptrend channel formed since June 10th and showing a slight recovery after consolidating in this area

Dimitrios Zappas 18:35 2025-06-25 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.