empty
02.04.2025 12:17 PM
BTC/USD Analysis. April 2nd. Bitcoin Is Also Afraid of Trump's Tariffs

This image is no longer relevant

The wave pattern on the 4-hour BTC/USD chart is clear. After completing a bullish trend composed of five full waves, a downward corrective phase began, which is still in progress. Based on this, I did not—and still do not—expect Bitcoin to rise above $110,000–$115,000 in the coming months.

The news backdrop had been supporting Bitcoin thanks to a steady flow of headlines about new investments from institutional traders, various governments, and pension funds. However, Trump and his policies have caused investors to exit the market—no trend can rise indefinitely. The wave that began on January 20 does not resemble an impulsive one. Thus, we are dealing with a complex corrective structure that could take months to form. Internally, this first wave is quite intricate, but a five-wave a-b-c-d-e structure within it can be distinguished. If the current wave count is correct, we are now seeing the formation of an upward corrective wave, which in classical theory consists of three waves. Waves a and b appear to be complete.

The BTC/USD rate has stabilized, and the current wave count suggests further upward movement. But how strong might this growth be? Many in the market panic if Bitcoin drops by $10,000–$15,000. However, given Bitcoin's extreme volatility, such a move can occur in just a few days. The price fell $33,000 from its all-time high—and even that correction doesn't seem excessive enough to expect a fresh bullish trend.

Therefore, I anticipate a corrective wave or series of waves, after which the broader corrective structure will continue to develop.

At the moment, Bitcoin is consolidating, and the market is waiting. Some might view a drop to $80,000 as sufficient—but let me remind you of the period from November 2021 to November 2022, when Bitcoin fell from $69,000 to $16,000. Back then, economists and crypto analysts also predicted continued growth and a target of $100,000, but Bitcoin lost nearly 80% of its value. Why couldn't a similar scenario unfold now?

That previous decline lasted a full year. This one has been unfolding for only 2.5 months. Trump may announce new global tariffs as soon as today, and under Donald Trump, Bitcoin tends to fall. It's quite symbolic that the decline began on January 20—Trump's inauguration day.

Given the above and the current wave structure, I believe the downtrend will continue.

This image is no longer relevant

General Conclusions

Based on the BTC/USD analysis, I conclude that the current growth phase is over. All signs point toward a complex, multi-month correction. That's why I have previously advised against buying crypto—and now, even more so. A drop below the low of wave 4 indicates a transition into a downward trend phase, most likely of a corrective nature.

In this context, the best strategy is to look for selling opportunities. A short-term upward corrective wave may occur soon, during which new short positions can be considered with targets near $68,000 and possibly as low as $55,000.

Higher Timeframe Outlook

On the higher wave scale, a five-wave bullish structure is visible. We are now witnessing the beginning of a corrective or bearish wave structure, potentially marking a new downtrend.

Core Principles of My Analysis:

  1. Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex formations are difficult to trade and often lead to revisions.
  2. If there's no confidence in the market situation, it's better to stay out.Absolute certainty in market direction is never possible. Always use Stop Loss orders.
  3. Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.
Chin Zhao,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on June 23

Bitcoin and Ethereum plummeted following speculation that Iran might block the Strait of Hormuz and begin bombing U.S. oil tankers in retaliation for American strikes. This triggered a massive sell-off

Miroslaw Bawulski 09:07 2025-06-23 UTC+2

Trading tips for crypto market on May 20 (North American session)

Bitcoin and Ether performed well today in terms of buying following a pause in yesterday's bear market. Demand has returned to the cryptocurrency market, especially after geopolitical tensions eased somewhat

Miroslaw Bawulski 16:20 2025-06-20 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on June 20

Bitcoin continued trading within a sideways channel, dropping to the $104,000 area yesterday before recovering to a more acceptable level of $104,500. Ethereum also showed no clear directional movement. Despite

Miroslaw Bawulski 09:24 2025-06-20 UTC+2

Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of Ripple Cryptocurrency, Friday June 20, 2025.

The Ripple cryptocurrency on its 4-hour chart appears to be moving in a ranging - sideways condition where it is currently stuck at the Support Bullish Rejection Block area level

Arief Makmur 07:45 2025-06-20 UTC+2

Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of Doge Cryptocurrency, Friday June 20, 2025.

From what is seen on the 4-hour chart, the Doge cryptocurrency appears to be moving under a Bearish bias, where this can be seen from its price movement which

Arief Makmur 07:45 2025-06-20 UTC+2

BTC/USD Analysis on June 19, 2025

The wave pattern on the 4-hour BTC/USD chart has become more complex in recent months. A corrective downward structure formed and completed near the $75,000 level. After that, a fairly

Chin Zhao 11:07 2025-06-19 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on June 19

Yesterday, Bitcoin and Ethereum remained under pressure, failing to receive support from major players despite attempts to break through key resistance levels. After dipping to around $130,400, Bitcoin is currently

Miroslaw Bawulski 08:36 2025-06-19 UTC+2

Wave analysis of BTC/USD on June 18. Bitcoin to clear up its overall impulse

The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart of BTC/USD has become more complicated in recent months. We observed a corrective downward structure that completed near the $75,000 mark. After that

Chin Zhao 15:34 2025-06-18 UTC+2

Middle East Tensions and U.S. Involvement Trigger Crypto Market Sell-Off

Bitcoin came under significant pressure yesterday following the escalation of tensions in the Middle East. The likelihood of U.S. involvement in a military conflict has increased significantly, which puts pressure

Jakub Novak 11:41 2025-06-18 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on June 18

Bitcoin and Ethereum plunged following the latest escalation in the Middle East and the increasing likelihood that the United States will be drawn into the conflict. Bitcoin dropped from $107,600

Miroslaw Bawulski 09:46 2025-06-18 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.