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11.04.2025 12:36 PM
EUR/USD – April 11th. The Dollar's Decline Shows No Sign of Stopping
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On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair spent the entire day in an upward move, gaining 400 points and approaching the 261.8% Fibonacci corrective level at 1.1318. A rebound from this level or from 1.1374 would favor the U.S. dollar and could lead to a modest decline. However, under the current circumstances, it's difficult to say what could actually work in favor of the dollar. It's unlikely that any technical level can withstand Donald Trump's trade policy, which has already devalued the dollar by 1,000 points.

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The wave structure on the hourly chart has shifted. The last completed downward wave failed to break the previous low, while the new upward wave broke the previous peak. This indicates that the bullish trend remains intact. Donald Trump continues to impose new import tariffs, and panic and chaos persist in the markets. Bulls re-entered the game last week—and with good reason.

The news flow on Thursday was extremely strong, but not for the bears. The main story was Trump's decision to give all countries a 90-day window for negotiations with the U.S., during which reduced import tariffs would apply. At the same time, however, he raised tariffs on imports from China. These rates have now reached triple digits. Traders did not respond positively to Trump's attempts to calm panic in the U.S. stock market or the sharp decline in demand for U.S. Treasury bonds. Investors are fleeing all U.S. securities. The new escalation in the trade war with China is far more concerning than any agreements with African nations. Since the trade war with China is not just expanding but accelerating exponentially, there's no reason to buy dollars, expect anything positive from the U.S. economy, or invest in U.S. stocks or bonds. Trust in the U.S. dollar and economy is collapsing at lightning speed.

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On the 4-hour chart, the pair has made a reversal in favor of the U.S. dollar, but the future direction will depend entirely on global developments. The trade war, in its full sense, is only beginning. Therefore, I cannot anticipate any sustained rise or fall in the pair based on current information alone. Market movements will continue to depend on the news background throughout the day. Nonetheless, the bullish trend remains intact.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

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During the latest reporting week, professional traders closed 6,549 long positions and opened 7,141 short positions. Sentiment among the "Non-commercial" group recently turned bullish again—thanks to Donald Trump. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 183,000, while short positions amount to 131,000.

For twenty consecutive weeks, large players were shedding their euro positions. But now, for the past eight weeks, they have been reducing shorts and increasing longs. While the divergence in monetary policy between the ECB and the Fed still theoretically favors the dollar due to interest rate differentials, Trump's trade policy remains a more dominant market factor. It may push the FOMC toward a dovish stance and increase the risk of a U.S. recession.

News Calendar for the U.S. and Eurozone:

  • U.S. – Producer Price Index (12:30 UTC)
  • U.S. – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (14:00 UTC)

On April 11, the economic calendar includes two notable releases. While these may have limited impact, the primary market driver remains any trade-related news. On Wednesday, China announced an 84% tariff on U.S. imports, and Trump responded by raising tariffs on Chinese goods to 125% and then to 145%. The ball is now in China's court.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trader Advice:

Buying or selling the pair today should be considered only if clear signals emerge near any key levels on the hourly chart. Once again, I emphasize that price movements will mostly be influenced by the news cycle, not the technical picture.

Fibonacci levels are drawn between 1.0957–1.0733 on the hourly chart and between 1.1214–1.0179 on the 4-hour chart.

Samir Klishi,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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