empty
14.04.2025 09:45 AM
The Uncertainty Factor Will Pressure the Dollar and Support Demand for Safe-Haven Assets (There is a likelihood of further decline in USD/JPY and rising gold prices)

Global markets remain heavily influenced by Donald Trump's erratic behavior. In his attempt to pull the U.S. out of severe economic dependence on imports, Trump continues to juggle the topic of tariff duties. Market participants remain mainly unresponsive to key economic data— especially from the U.S. — remaining instead under the strong influence of the chaos generated by the American president. And yet, that data signals significant changes in the national economy.

On Friday, a report on U.S. consumer inflation showed a notable slowdown in headline and core values. If this trend continues, it could become a strong signal for the Federal Reserve to proceed with interest rate cuts this year. However, amid this wave of positivity, one key factor must be considered — the turbulence surrounding Trump's tariff decisions. He softened his stance under domestic pressure by issuing a resolution to delay massive tariff plans for most trading partners by 90 days, settling on a 10% rate.

But this isn't a solution to the problem. It still looms. And while many begin to believe that Trump may yield under immense pressure, that may not happen, considering the personality traits of the 47th president. Also worth noting is that the U.S.'s largest trading partner, China, didn't bend to Washington's will and responded symmetrically.

In this environment of persistent uncertainty surrounding the future of the trade war, investors are trying to react locally. The market responded positively to the 90-day pause and the U.S. Consumer Price Index drop on Friday. Global stock indices gained solidly, and prices rose in the commodity markets. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar, as expected, fell below the critical psychological level of 100.00 on the ICE index — and this decline continues this morning. The cryptocurrency market has slowed its upward movement, as the key factor of global economic uncertainty remains the primary constraint.

What can be expected in the markets today?

The positive reaction in the stock markets will likely fade against the backdrop of lingering uncertainty over the consequences of the trade wars launched by Donald Trump. The cryptocurrency market is expected to consolidate within a sideways range, as will prices in the commodity markets. However, the dollar is expected to continue declining, as falling inflation now adds to the negative pressure from the tariff narrative — and if inflation continues to fall, the Fed may be prompted to cut interest rates.

This image is no longer relevant

This image is no longer relevant

Day Forecast:

USD/JPY

The pair remains under intense pressure amid the negativity surrounding the dollar. Most likely, after breaking below the 142.35 support level — which previously served as a target — the pair may fall first to 141.60 and then to 140.60. A potential entry point could be at 142.15.

GOLD

Gold prices resumed growth under the influence of uncertainty. However, a pullback toward 3166.40 is possible before the next upward movement due to local overbought conditions. The entry point could be around 3194.48, with a short-term target of 3272.50.

Pati Gani,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

The Pound Ignores Weak Data and Persistently Tries to Continue Rising

The macroeconomic data from the UK published last week looks frankly weak—everything is in the red zone, meaning worse than expected. Nevertheless, the pound continues to climb upward regardless

Kuvat Raharjo 19:36 2025-06-16 UTC+2

CFTC Report: The Dollar Is Being Sold Off Again. Awaiting New Revelations from Trump

Five weeks ago, the total short position on the U.S. dollar against major currencies stopped increasing, which gave reason to believe the dollar might begin an offensive in the currency

Kuvat Raharjo 12:14 2025-06-16 UTC+2

GBP/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Today, the GBP/USD pair is attempting to regain positive momentum while remaining on the defensive. Traders prefer to wait for the release of key data before opening directional positions

Irina Yanina 12:10 2025-06-16 UTC+2

EUR/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Today, the EUR/USD pair is attempting to regain positive momentum, approaching the psychological level of 1.600 and price levels last seen in 2021. Traders are eagerly awaiting the important political

Irina Yanina 12:08 2025-06-16 UTC+2

The Israel-Iran Confrontation. Fed Meeting. What's Next? (I expect further decline in USD/CAD and a local pullback in gold before a new wave of growth)

Israel and Iran are exchanging missile strikes, but it seems markets are trying to play their own game, assuming that this conflict will not cross the nuclear threshold

Pati Gani 10:51 2025-06-16 UTC+2

EUR/USD: War Is No Ally to the Greenback

At the start of the new trading week, the EUR/USD pair stayed within the 1.15 range and is even trying to approach the resistance level of 1.1600 despite the ongoing

Irina Manzenko 10:32 2025-06-16 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on June 16? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

No macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Monday, but the market does not lack news. This week, Donald Trump announced his intention to raise all import tariffs, as none

Paolo Greco 06:46 2025-06-16 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – June 16: How Trump Is Undermining the Dollar

The GBP/USD currency pair will remain under the influence of geopolitics and politics in the new week. Essentially, we've been saying the same thing every day for the past four

Paolo Greco 04:54 2025-06-16 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – June 16: The Israel-Iran Conflict Changes Nothing

The EUR/USD currency pair moved sharply back and forth throughout Friday. The pair traded with high volatility for two consecutive days, and there is a clear and logical explanation

Paolo Greco 04:54 2025-06-16 UTC+2

EUR/USD. Weekly Preview. Focus on the Middle East and the Federal Reserve

The final trading day of last week ended on an uncertain note. Reacting to Middle East developments, the EUR/USD pair sharply declined on Friday, retreating from the multi-year price high

Irina Manzenko 01:30 2025-06-16 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.