empty
16.04.2025 05:12 AM
EUR/USD Forecast for April 16, 2025

Yesterday, the euro zone's ZEW economic sentiment indicators for April were disappointing. The index plunged from 39.8 in March to -18.5, far below the forecast of 13.2. We believe the European business community is taking a more realistic view of the trade war's consequences than the media suggests and is also skeptical about the "off-budget" plan to ramp up defense production. We previously stated that the U.S. will likely be the trade war's main beneficiary. As a result, we view the entire April rise in the euro as speculative and expect a decline once the right catalyst appears.

This image is no longer relevant

The first such catalyst could be tomorrow's European Central Bank monetary policy meeting. We anticipate a more decisive stance from the central bank in supporting the economy and responding to slowing inflation. Today's forecast for March CPI is 2.2% y/y versus 2.3% in February. Core CPI is expected to ease from 2.6% y/y to 2.4% y/y.

The ideal euro reversal point is the 1.1535 target. If volatility increases on the day of the ECB meeting, this level could be reached, possibly forming a bearish divergence on the daily chart. If there is no upward price spike, a move below the support range at 1.1110/50 would signal a reversal.

This image is no longer relevant

The price is rebounding from the 1.1276 support level on the four-hour chart. The Marlin oscillator is breaking into the positive trend territory, indicating that the upward trend is still intact.

Also on this timeframe, the Kijun (MACD) line has moved into the 1.1110/50 support zone, reinforcing its importance as a potential medium-term reversal area.

Laurie Bailey,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

GBP/USD. Analysis and Forecast

The GBP/USD pair is attracting new sellers following its recent rebound from the 1.3415 level, amid modest gains in the U.S. dollar. However, today, the potential for further downside appears

Irina Yanina 13:24 2025-05-30 UTC+2

Forecast for EUR/USD on May 30, 2025

On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair sharply reversed in favor of the euro and rose into the resistance zone of 1.1374–1.1380. A rebound from this zone favored the U.S. dollar

Samir Klishi 10:58 2025-05-30 UTC+2

Forecast for GBP/USD on May 30, 2025

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair dropped to the 1.3425 level on Thursday, then rebounded and reversed in favor of the British pound. This initiated a growth process toward

Samir Klishi 10:41 2025-05-30 UTC+2

Forex forecast 30/05/2025: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, SP500, Gold, and Bitcoin

Useful links: My other articles are available in this section InstaForex course for beginners Popular Analytics Open trading account Important: The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful

Sebastian Seliga 09:30 2025-05-30 UTC+2

Forecast for EUR/USD on May 30, 2025

Like other anti-dollar currencies, the euro quickly overcame the negative news from the U.S. Court of International Trade and closed the day with a 76-pip gain. This morning, the price

Laurie Bailey 05:26 2025-05-30 UTC+2

Forecast for GBP/USD on May 30, 2025

On Thursday, the British pound reached the target support level of 1.3433, after which it reversed to the upside, closing the day with a 20-pip gain. The Marlin oscillator slowly

Laurie Bailey 05:26 2025-05-30 UTC+2

Forecast for USD/JPY on May 30, 2025

The Japanese yen made a significant move yesterday, falling more than two figures from the day's high to the close. The powerful wave of yen strengthening continues today, starting from

Laurie Bailey 05:26 2025-05-30 UTC+2

Trading Signals for GOLD for May 29-30, 2025: sell below $3,317 (7/8 Murray - 21 SMA)

Early in the American session, gold is trading around 3,314 with a strong technical rebound originating after reaching the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Gold rose sharply after testing

Dimitrios Zappas 15:58 2025-05-29 UTC+2

Trading Signals for EUR/USD for May 29-30, 2025: sell below 1.1360 (21 SMA - 5/8 Murray)

Early in the American session, the euro is trading around 1.1331 and is experiencing a strong technical rebound after reaching the 4/8 Murray level at 1.1230. The euro could rise

Dimitrios Zappas 15:53 2025-05-29 UTC+2

Forecast for EUR/USD on May 29, 2025

On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair continued to decline and consolidated below the support zone at 1.1260–1.1282. Therefore, today's price drop may continue toward the next Fibonacci retracement level of 23.6%

Samir Klishi 11:15 2025-05-29 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.