empty
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.
Start as Beginner
How to start trading
Useful information
Training and recordings
InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.
Become Investor
PAMM System
ForexCopy System
Passive investments
Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.
Become Partner
Main Page
Partner Area
Advantages for Affiliates
Registration
This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.
All Promo Campaigns
Bonuses
Contests
Events
Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.
Full details
Forums
We are in social networks
Forex humour
Forex Portal
InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.
Learn More
History
Why Choose Us
InstaSport
Regulation
Company News
Awards
InstaForex Stars
InstaForex Offline
Headquarters
Key documents
Social Responsibility
20.08.2024 03:18 PM
Will the yen return to the game?
Open trading account Open demo account

In July, the yen became the most effective currency on Forex, strengthening by 7% against the U.S. dollar, and at the peak of Black Monday, its growth hit 12.5%. However, since then, concerns about a U.S. recession and the overnight rate hike by the Bank of Japan have subsided. USD/JPY has entered a consolidation phase, and now, investors are wondering where the pair will head next. Both the bulls and the bears have their own arguments.

For the past three years, the yen has been a clear underperformer on Forex. Just seven weeks ago, hedge funds held short positions in the currency of Japan at their highest levels since 2007. However, by the week ending August 13, they became net buyers of the yen for the first time since March 2021. On paper, this suggests that the unwinding of carry trades might have concluded. The fate of the yen will depend on whether carry traders are willing to return.

Speculative Position Dynamics on the Yen

This image is no longer relevant

The improvement in global risk appetite, evidenced by the ongoing rally in U.S. stock indices, the wide yield differentials between U.S. and Japanese bonds, and the slow pace of monetary policy normalization by the BoJ, suggests a gradual return to carry trades and supports the case for buying USD/JPY.

On the other hand, the persistence of high volatility on Forex, partly due to the upcoming September election of Japan's new prime minister and the November U.S. presidential election, creates significant obstacles for carry traders. Adding to this is the narrowing divergence in monetary policy between the Fed and the Bank of Japan, leading Europe's largest asset manager, Amundi, to predict a decline in USD/JPY to the 140 level, the lowest since July 2023.

In reality, the fate of the pair will depend on how quickly the central banks move. If the futures market is correct about a 100 bps cut in the federal funds rate in 2024, the U.S. dollar may be in trouble. If not, the American currency may still perform well. The Bank of Japan's actions are anticipated to be supportive. In the best-case scenario for the yen, it might raise the overnight rate from the current 0.25% one more time this year. In the worst case, it may not raise the rate at all.

This image is no longer relevant

Investors may soon receive some clues. Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak at Jackson Hole at the end of the week on August 23, while Kazuo Ueda will speak before the Japanese parliament on the same day. Markets are also awaiting the release of inflation data in Japan for July. If consumer prices, as Bloomberg experts predict, continue to accelerate, the BoJ will have no choice but to further tighten monetary policy.

Technically, on the daily chart, USD/JPY is forming an inside bar. In such conditions, it makes sense to set pending orders to buy the U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen from the 147.3 level and to sell from the support level at the pivot point of 145.7.

Marek Petkovich,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
All Analytics
Crypto-currencies
Trading tips for crypto market on June 27 (North American session) Bitcoin made another attempt to return to the $108,000 level, but failed to hold it and corrected lower, falling below the $107,000 mark, a move that could lead
Miroslaw Bawulski
15:47 2025-06-27 +02:00
1540
Forecast
USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on June 27th (U.S. Session) Trade Review and Recommendations for the Japanese Yen The price test of 144.59 occurred when the MACD had already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward
Jakub Novak
13:20 2025-06-27 +02:00
1735
Breaking Forecast Trading Plan Cryptocurrencies USD/RUB Russian Economy Video Analysis
Trading Instruments
EURUSD GBPUSD USDCHF USDCAD USDJPY AUDUSD EURGBP EURJPY NZDUSD EURNZD Silver Gold #CL #USDX COVID-19 Bitcoin
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

The Yen Has Lost Its Bullish Momentum

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the Tokyo region declined in June from 3.4% to 3.1% year-over-year, marking the first signal so far that may indicate a slowdown in price
Kuvat Raharjo 12:21 2025-06-27 UTC+2

EUR/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

The EUR/JPY pair is regaining positive momentum during today's trading session, reversing its recent decline.The euro continues to benefit from the prevailing sentiment of selling the U.S. dollar
Irina Yanina 12:17 2025-06-27 UTC+2

Inflation in Canada Remains Too High – USD/CAD May Accelerate Its Decline

Inflation in Canada remains too high to expect a rate cut by the Bank of Canada at its upcoming meeting. In April, inflation sharply slowed to 1.7% y/y, and most
Kuvat Raharjo 11:16 2025-06-27 UTC+2

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Gold is drawing renewed selling interest today after breaking below the key $3300 level. Traders are awaiting the release of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which
Irina Yanina 10:47 2025-06-27 UTC+2

PCE Index Data Unlikely to Significantly Impact Market Dynamics (Potential for Renewed Growth in EUR/USD and Bitcoin)

The easing of tensions in the markets, following a pause in the military conflict in the Middle East, supports the return of the previous paradigm—an increase in demand for stocks
Pati Gani 09:52 2025-06-27 UTC+2

The Market Is Off the Leash

Greed has returned to the markets. While professionals warn about the need for caution amid geopolitical uncertainty, trade wars, and the state of the U.S. economy, retail investors are once
Marek Petkovich 09:16 2025-06-27 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on June 27? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

There are relatively few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Friday. Some experts refer to the PCE indicator as "important" and "the Fed's favorite," but we do not share that view
Paolo Greco 07:02 2025-06-27 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – June 27: History Doesn't Repeat Itself

The GBP/USD currency pair continued its strong upward movement throughout Thursday. Since the beginning of the week, the U.S. dollar has lost "only" 330 pips. As we've previously stated
Paolo Greco 03:41 2025-06-27 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – June 27: Can Trump Balance the Trade Deficit?

The EUR/USD currency pair is in a "free rise" (similar to the term "free fall"). The dollar is once again plunging into the abyss, just as we repeatedly warned. It's
Paolo Greco 03:41 2025-06-27 UTC+2

Powell, Trump, and Everyone Else

What will change with the arrival of a new Federal Reserve Chair? This is a rather important question, and the answer to it may already have implications for the U.S
Chin Zhao 00:08 2025-06-27 UTC+2

Top analytics

Relevance up to 01:00 2025-06-28 UTC--5
USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on June 27. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades
08:50 2025-06-27
Forecast
Relevance up to 00:00 2025-06-28 UTC--5
XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast
10:47 2025-06-27
Fundamental analysis
Relevance up to 22:00 2025-06-27 UTC--5
EUR/USD Forecast for June 27, 2025
05:13 2025-06-27
Technical analysis
Relevance up to 05:00 2025-06-28 UTC--5
EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders for June 27th (U.S. Session)
13:11 2025-06-27
Forecast
Relevance up to 03:00 2025-06-28 UTC--5
Forex forecast 27/06/2025: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, Gold, Oil and Bitcoin
10:12 2025-06-27
Technical analysis
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
Callback widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.