Trade Review and Recommendations for the Euro

The test of the 1.0399 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential, especially within the prevailing bearish trend. For this reason, I did not buy the euro. Similarly, the 1.0381 test happened when the MACD was deeply below zero, restricting the downward potential.

Today, traders will focus on consumer sentiment and economic activity indicators, which are key drivers for the forex market. The Core PCE Price Index, expected shortly, could have a significant impact on currency markets.

A steady rise in consumer spending may signal positive economic dynamics in the U.S., strengthening the dollar. Changes in personal income and spending are also important, as higher incomes boost purchasing power, potentially stimulating inflation. Strong inflationary signals could reinforce expectations that the Fed will maintain high interest rates, increasing demand for the dollar.

Additionally, a speech by FOMC member Michelle Bowman will add intrigue to the session. If her remarks support a more hawkish monetary policy, it could negatively impact the euro and other currencies.

Intraday Trading Strategy: Focus on Scenarios #1 and #2

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Buy the euro at 1.0392 (green line on the chart) targeting 1.0430. At 1.0430, I will exit the market and sell the euro, expecting a 30–35 point pullback. Euro's upward movement depends on weak U.S. data.

Important! Before buying, confirm that MACD is above zero and beginning to rise.

Scenario #2: Buy the euro after two consecutive tests of 1.0365, provided that MACD is in the oversold zone. This setup will limit the downward potential and could trigger a bullish reversal. The expected target levels for this scenario are 1.0392 and 1.0430.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: Sell the euro at 1.0365 (red line on the chart), targeting 1.0324. At 1.0324, I will exit the market and buy back the euro, expecting a 20–25 point rebound. Bearish pressure could return at any time—especially after strong U.S. data.

Important! Before selling, confirm that MACD is below zero and starting to decline.

Scenario #2: Sell the euro after two consecutive tests of 1.0392, provided that MACD is in the overbought zone. This setup will limit the upward potential and could trigger a bearish reversal. Expected downside targets are 1.0365 and 1.0324.

Chart Explanation

• Thin green line – Entry price for buying.
• Thick green line – Target price for Take Profit or manual exit (growth beyond this level is unlikely).
• Thin red line – Entry price for selling.
• Thick red line – Target price for Take Profit or manual exit (further downside is unlikely).
• MACD Indicator – Overbought and oversold zones should be considered before market entry.

Important Notes for Beginner Forex Traders

Exercise caution when entering trades. Avoid trading before major economic reports to reduce the risk of sharp price fluctuations. Always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses, especially when trading large volumes.

Without stop-loss orders, you risk losing your entire deposit quickly. A well-structured trading plan is essential—like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on short-term market conditions are a losing strategy for intraday traders.