Trade Review and Recommendations for the Japanese Yen

The test of 154.54 in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below zero, which, within the morning uptrend, limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the U.S. dollar.

This afternoon, we have key U.S. economic data releases, including Core PCE Price Index and Personal Spending and Income Reports.

If the data comes in strong, the dollar could extend its gains, strengthening USD/JPY further.

Additionally, the speech from FOMC member Michelle Bowman will be closely watched. If she maintains a hawkish stance on interest rates, it could provide another reason to buy the dollar and sell the yen.

For intraday trading, I will focus on Scenario #1 and Scenario #2, aligning with the continuation of the downward trend.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Buy USD/JPY at 154.82 (green line on the chart) targeting 155.77 (thicker green line on the chart). At 155.77, I will exit the long position and sell USD/JPY, expecting a 30–35 point pullback. Bullish momentum depends on strong U.S. economic data.

Important! Before buying, confirm that MACD is above zero and beginning to rise.

Scenario #2: Buy USD/JPY after two consecutive tests of 154.47, provided that MACD is in the oversold zone. This setup will limit the downward potential and could trigger a bullish reversal. Expected upside targets: 154.82 and 155.77.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: Sell USD/JPY after a break below 154.47 (red line on the chart), targeting 153.75. At 153.75, I will exit short positions and buy USD/JPY, expecting a 20–25 point retracement. Bearish pressure could increase following weak U.S. data.

Important! Before selling, confirm that MACD is below zero and beginning to decline.

Scenario #2: Sell USD/JPY after two consecutive tests of 154.82, provided that MACD is in the overbought zone. This setup will limit the upward potential and could trigger a bearish reversal. Expected downside targets: 154.47 and 153.75.

Chart Explanation

• Thin green line – Entry price for buying.
• Thick green line – Take Profit level or target where further upside is unlikely.
• Thin red line – Entry price for selling.
• Thick red line – Take Profit level or target where further downside is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator – Overbought and oversold zones should be monitored before entering a trade.

Important Notes for Beginner Forex Traders

• Exercise caution when entering trades, especially before major U.S. economic data releases.
• Avoid trading right before key reports to prevent getting caught in high volatility.
• Always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses, especially when trading large volumes.
• Without stop-loss protection, you risk losing your deposit quickly.
• A structured trading plan is essential—like the one presented above.
• Spontaneous trading decisions based on short-term market movements are a losing strategy for intraday traders.