Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

Monday features a significant lineup of macroeconomic events. The day will kick off with the release of PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) data from the UK, Germany, and the Eurozone. While these are important indicators, it is quite challenging to anticipate positive results from both the European and British reports. Last week, the euro and pound were fortunate not to decline further. A more crucial release will be the inflation report from the Eurozone. German inflation fell sharply in January, and if Eurozone inflation also reflects a slowdown, it could give the market further reasons to sell the euro. Finally, the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI will be published, which is more significant than standard PMIs and may indicate an increase compared to the previous reading.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

On Monday, the only significant event to watch for is the speech by Federal Reserve representative Raphael Bostic. However, since the Fed meeting took place last week and Jerome Powell already shared all the necessary information, it's unlikely that any members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will express a different viewpoint from Powell's. In any case, the dollar is expected to rise, even locally. Although the upward correction on the daily timeframe may not yet be complete, the dollar should still demonstrate some gains.

General Conclusions:

On the first trading day of the week, we can expect the U.S. dollar to strengthen again. Both currency pairs, EUR/USD and GBP/USD, are currently experiencing a sideways trend, indicating a lack of strong trading activity in the market. Without a strong desire to trade, we are unlikely to see significant movements, regardless of the economic reports released. The macroeconomic data that could genuinely impact the movements of the euro and the pound include the Eurozone inflation report and the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.