empty
17.03.2025 09:52 AM
Dollar Sells Off, Recession Threat Grows, S&P 500 Index Risks a Major Collapse

The dollar sell-off continues without signs of slowing down. According to the CFTC report, the net long position on the USD decreased by another $4.6 billion over the week, reaching $4.9 billion—the lowest level in 21 weeks. The euro contributes the most to this decline, followed by the pound, while changes in other currencies remain minimal.

This image is no longer relevant

On Friday, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index showed a sharp drop in consumer confidence, falling 6.8 points to 57.9—the lowest level since the 2022 crisis. Considering the index also declined in February and January, the three-month drop totals 16.1 points, marking the steepest decline since May 2020.

The threat of a recession has suddenly become highly relevant. The U.S. economy grew steadily recently, with GDP expanding by 2.5% year-over-year in Q4 of last year. However, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model now projects a 2.4% contraction for the current quarter. This decline comes despite statements from Federal Reserve Chair Powell last week, who claimed that the U.S. economy continues to grow steadily. Markets have reacted extremely negatively to Trump's abrupt tariff policy moves.

The Fed is set to hold another meeting this week, and the market expects interest rates to remain unchanged. Overall, three rate cuts are anticipated this year. At the same time, markets are wary of recession risks and rising inflation. One-year inflation expectations rose to 4.9% in March—the highest since November 2022—while long-term expectations increased from 3.5% to 3.9%.

The dollar remains under pressure, particularly against the yen and European currencies.

The U.S. stock market sell-off continues. Just a few weeks ago, there was potential for the S&P 500 to rise to 6,220. However, disappointment over the Trump administration's aggressive tariff policies, recession fears, and inflation risks—essentially, the threat of stagflation—has drastically worsened the outlook.

This image is no longer relevant

Last week, we considered the S&P 500's decline a correction, expecting support around 5,660 but also warning of a much deeper drop to 5,270. Over the past week, conditions have deteriorated, with the S&P 500 falling to 5,503—the lowest level since September—and the probability of a further collapse has increased. The scenario is becoming increasingly bearish, with a possible rebound meeting resistance at 5,770, where another bearish impulse could form. The primary scenario now favors further declines to 5,090.

Kuvat Raharjo,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

USD/JPY: Analysis and Forecast

The Japanese yen continues to be on the defensive against the U.S. dollar, as global risk sentiment improves following new stimulus measures announced by China over the weekend. This

Irina Yanina 11:35 2025-03-17 UTC+2

USD/CAD: The Pair Starts the New Week with Caution

The USD/CAD pair begins the new week with caution, fluctuating within a narrow range above 1.4350 and remaining above the 50-day SMA. However, fundamental factors suggest potential downside risks. Positive

Irina Yanina 11:05 2025-03-17 UTC+2

Are stock investors poised to buy shares during nosedive?

Anything can happen sooner or later. The S&P 500 entered correction territory in just 16 trading sessions. In the previous 24 instances where stocks dropped 10% from recent record highs

Marek Petkovich 09:32 2025-03-17 UTC+2

Markets Will Remain in a Depressed State for Some Time (we expect a renewed decline in #Bitcoin and #Litecoin)

Global financial markets continue to be heavily influenced by the policies of the U.S. president, who is disrupting the established economic and geopolitical framework that existed before him. Naturally, this

Pati Gani 09:15 2025-03-17 UTC+2

GBP/USD Pair Overview – March 17: The Market Has Fallen Asleep. Nobody Cares About the Economy

The GBP/USD currency pair completely stagnated on Friday. The chart below clearly shows that there was significant volatility during the first three days of the week before last when

Paolo Greco 04:05 2025-03-17 UTC+2

EUR/USD Pair Overview – March 17: No Hint of Correction

The EUR/USD currency pair did not continue its sluggish downward movement from Wednesday and Thursday on Friday. As a result, we will have to wait once again for a correction

Paolo Greco 04:05 2025-03-17 UTC+2

US Dollar: Weekly Preview

America will once again be a major focus in the news. Surprisingly, it won't primarily be due to economic updates or the Federal Reserve meeting, but rather news surrounding Donald

Chin Zhao 23:05 2025-03-16 UTC+2

EUR/USD Weekly Preview: All Eyes on the Fed

After experiencing a significant surge of 500 pips, the EUR/USD pair has settled into a period of stagnation, awaiting further news. The Federal Reserve may either alleviate or heighten concerns

Irina Manzenko 23:05 2025-03-16 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on March 17? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

There are very few macroeconomic events scheduled for Monday, with the only notable report being on retail sales in the US. It's important to note that the market has shown

Paolo Greco 22:27 2025-03-16 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.