empty
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.
Start as Beginner
How to start trading
Useful information
Training and recordings
InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.
Become Investor
PAMM System
ForexCopy System
Passive investments
Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.
Become Partner
Main Page
Partner Area
Advantages for Affiliates
Registration
This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.
All Promo Campaigns
Bonuses
Contests
Events
Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.
Full details
Forums
We are in social networks
Forex humour
Forex Portal
InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.
Learn More
History
Why Choose Us
InstaSport
Regulation
Company News
Awards
InstaForex Stars
InstaForex Offline
Headquarters
Key documents
Social Responsibility
24.03.2025 10:23 AM
The Market Fell Into a Pit It Dug for Others
Open trading account Open demo account

What drives the markets? Fear? Greed? At the moment, disappointment is far more significant. Investors are realizing that Donald Trump's tariff policy will not lead to anything good, and the loss of American exceptionalism is triggering capital outflows from the U.S., keeping the S&P 500 under pressure. According to Morningstar, investors added about $2 billion on a net basis to American funds investing in European stocks in January and February.

Capital flow trends into Europe-focused ETFs

This image is no longer relevant

The continued rise of stock indices in Europe suggests that markets do not believe White House tariffs will trigger a recession across the Atlantic. Perhaps the risks of a trade war are being underestimated. The upcoming new round of import tariffs, which the U.S. administration is expected to announce on April 2, seemed to knock the S&P 500 to the floor. However, rumors of a more limited scope of protectionism allowed the broad equity index to rise from the ashes.

According to Bloomberg insiders, tariffs in April will target two groups of countries: those with significant trade surpluses with the U.S. and those whose tariffs against the U.S. are deemed too high. The blacklist, or as Scott Bessent puts it, the "Dirty 15" list, includes Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, the EU, India, Japan, South Korea, Mexico, and others.

The fewer the tariffs, the less the disappointment. Donald Trump promised to accelerate the U.S. economy, yet Wall Street Journal experts are now downgrading their U.S. GDP forecasts from over 2% to 1–1.5% for 2025. The same goes for the OECD, Fitch Ratings, and the Federal Reserve. The Republican's policy is aimed at creating problems for other countries, but in reality, thanks to fiscal stimulus, Europe is gaining momentum, and China intends to meet its ambitious 5% growth target in 2025.

Adding to the disappointment is the loss of American exceptionalism. Investors increasingly recall that U.S.-issued securities are fundamentally overpriced and that a bubble has formed in the market—similar to the dot-com bubble at the turn of the 21st century. Twenty-five years ago, the S&P 500 rally was also driven by technology, specifically the internet. Now, that role has been taken over by artificial intelligence.

S&P 500 performance in different years

This image is no longer relevant

This image is no longer relevant

A quarter-century ago, the broad equity index collapsed. It only returned to record highs in 2007. Today, the S&P 500 has risen 72% from its October 2022 low to record highs. Then came a 10% drop, and few expect the stock market to recover before the second half of 2025.

Technically, forming a candlestick with a long lower shadow on the S&P 500 daily chart signals that the bulls may be ready to counterattack. The 5670 level remains the red line. Above this level, buying becomes a sensible strategy. Conversely, if it falls below, selling is the appropriate action.

Marek Petkovich,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
All Analytics
Fundamental analysis
Are Things Really So Optimistic with the Deals with China and the UK? Last week, Donald Trump announced the signing of the first deal with the United Kingdom under his "America's Liberation" campaign. It was later revealed that the deal had not been
Chin Zhao
00:40 2025-05-16 +02:00
1060
Fundamental analysis
The Euro Didn't End Up in the Junkyard Chinese goods have flooded the European market, but EUR/USD bulls aren't alarmed by this. While the U.S. has reduced tariffs on imports from China, the weighted average tariff still sits
Marek Petkovich
00:39 2025-05-16 +02:00
1165
Breaking Forecast Trading Plan Cryptocurrencies USD/RUB Russian Economy Video Analysis
Trading Instruments
EURUSD GBPUSD USDCHF USDCAD USDJPY AUDUSD EURGBP EURJPY NZDUSD EURNZD Silver Gold #CL #USDX COVID-19 Bitcoin
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Are Things Really So Optimistic with the Deals with China and the UK?

Last week, Donald Trump announced the signing of the first deal with the United Kingdom under his "America's Liberation" campaign. It was later revealed that the deal had not been
Chin Zhao 00:40 2025-05-16 UTC+2

The Euro Didn't End Up in the Junkyard

Chinese goods have flooded the European market, but EUR/USD bulls aren't alarmed by this. While the U.S. has reduced tariffs on imports from China, the weighted average tariff still sits
Marek Petkovich 00:39 2025-05-16 UTC+2

AUD/USD Outlook: Australia's Economic Momentum Fades

The monthly NAB Business Survey showed that the positive momentum which drove GDP growth of 1.3% y/y in Q1 is fading. Business confidence improved slightly but remains in negative territory
Kuvat Raharjo 19:49 2025-05-15 UTC+2

GBP/USD. The Pound Ignores the UK's Optimistic GDP Report

The UK's economic growth report released today offered support to GBP/USD buyers, although the market's reaction was muted. Traders are reluctant to open large positions ahead of today's speech
Irina Manzenko 19:38 2025-05-15 UTC+2

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Gold is attempting to stay above its 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA). However, optimism sparked by the de-escalation of the U.S.–China trade war — involving the world's two largest economies
Irina Yanina 19:17 2025-05-15 UTC+2

USD/CHF. Analysis and Forecast

The USD/CHF pair continues to decline, facing headwinds. Intraday losses are driven by selling pressure on the U.S. dollar, pushing spot prices back below the key 0.8400 psychological level —
Irina Yanina 19:11 2025-05-15 UTC+2

AUD/USD: What Do the "Australian Nonfarm Payrolls" Tell Us?

Australia's labor market has exceeded expectations—nearly all components of the April employment report came out in the "green zone." While the release had a few flaws, it overall favored
Irina Manzenko 11:12 2025-05-15 UTC+2

The U.S.–China Trade War Pause Has Been Priced In — What's Next? (A Possible Correction in #SPX and Bitcoin)

On Thursday, a clear slowdown is observed in the stock market rally—one could even say it has stalled. This is due to the market having already priced in the 90-day
Pati Gani 11:07 2025-05-15 UTC+2

The Market Fears Nothing

From an ugly duckling to a beautiful swan, the S&P 500 has shifted from a highly overbought stock index in early April to a considerably oversold one. Since 1950, there
Marek Petkovich 09:20 2025-05-15 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on May 15? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

A relatively large number of macroeconomic events are scheduled for Thursday, but very few are likely to trigger a strong market reaction. The second estimate of Q1 GDP and industrial
Paolo Greco 06:21 2025-05-15 UTC+2

Top analytics

Relevance up to 10:00 UTC--4
USD: Weak on the Surface – Strong at the Core. The Game Isn't Over, the Dollar Prepares an Unexpected Move
00:39 2025-05-16
News
Relevance up to 09:00 2025-05-17 UTC--4
The Euro Didn't End Up in the Junkyard
00:39 2025-05-16
Fundamental analysis
Relevance up to 14:00 UTC--4
Are Things Really So Optimistic with the Deals with China and the UK?
00:40 2025-05-16
Fundamental analysis
Relevance up to 09:00 UTC--4
GBP/USD. The Pound Ignores the UK's Optimistic GDP Report
19:38 2025-05-15
Fundamental analysis
Relevance up to 10:00 2025-05-20 UTC--4
AUD/USD Outlook: Australia's Economic Momentum Fades
19:49 2025-05-15
Fundamental analysis
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
Callback widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.