Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro
The price test at 1.1019 occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving downward from the zero level, confirming a correct entry point for a short position on the euro. As a result, the pair declined toward the target level of 1.0942.
Despite the impressive increase in U.S. nonfarm payrolls in March, the rise in the unemployment rate to 4.2% dampened traders' enthusiasm for the dollar. While an increase in unemployment is certainly a negative factor, it can also indicate an influx of new participants into the labor force, reflecting optimism about job prospects. As a result, the market reaction was muted as participants awaited further guidance from the Federal Reserve regarding future monetary policy—which ultimately did not materialize.
This morning, investor confidence data from the eurozone (Sentix) and eurozone retail sales figures are expected. If the economic data is weak, pressure on the EUR/USD pair will likely return. The market is closely watching macroeconomic data from the eurozone. The Sentix index reflects investor sentiment, while changes in retail sales offer insight into consumer activity. Both indicators are crucial for assessing the region's economic conditions and growth prospects. Worse-than-expected data may trigger euro selling, while positive data may support the euro—especially under current trade tensions. Strong investor confidence and rising retail sales suggest economic stability, potentially attracting euro buyers.
For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on Scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to buy the euro today if the price reaches around 1.1040 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.1117. At 1.1117, I plan to exit the market and open a short position, expecting a pullback of 30–35 pips from the entry point. You can expect euro growth in the morning after strong data. Important! Before entering a long position, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and beginning to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.0975 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit downside potential and may trigger a reversal to the upside. A rise to 1.1040 and 1.1117 can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after the price hits 1.0975 (red line on the chart), targeting 1.0887, where I plan to exit and immediately enter a long position, anticipating a 20–25 pip pullback. Downward pressure could return quickly today. Important! Before entering a short position, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1040 level while the MACD is in the overbought area. This will limit upside potential and may lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward 1.0975 and 1.0887 is possible.
What's on the Chart:
- The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
- The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
- The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
- The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
- The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.
Important Notes:
- Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
- Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.
