Analisis Forex & Kajian: 30.05.2023 - Debt ceiling deal unlikely to...

30.05.2023 11:16 AM

Debt ceiling deal unlikely to ease US budget deficit

The agreement reached between US President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy on Saturday will not lead to a significant change in the country's finances because it primarily affects a portion of the budget known as discretionary spending. This will limit spending on certain federal government services, but will not significantly reduce the overall budget deficit projected to be around $20 trillion over the next decade.

The deal restricts non-defense spending, which constitutes a relatively small part of the total budget, but includes funding for the environment, scientific research, the Department of Justice, and more. With an annual inflation rate of 5%, there won't be enough money next year to sustain the same services outside of the national security areas.

Even in defense, some selective cuts will be made, as the 3.3% increase agreed upon by the White House and Republican representatives falls below the inflation level.

The deal does not affect most rapidly growing programs such as Medicare, Social Security, or Medicaid, which make up a significant portion of the budget.

Stock market indices reacted positively to the agreement, while the dollar index, which strengthened in anticipation of a possible default in the US, showed signs of a slowdown.

The Biden team agreed to cut $21 billion over ten years from IRS enforcement and $28 billion from previous COVID spending, which, according to the White House, will help prevent internal agencies from virtually freezing spending next year. This represents a compromise as House Republicans sought to repeal all non-obligatory COVID assistance spending and most of the $80 billion allocated to the IRS in the Biden Inflation Reduction Act.

In short, the deal will prevent a default, but it will only marginally reduce overall spending and borrowing. It may also alleviate inflationary pressure by slowing down economic growth.

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Fundamental analysis

Andrey Shevchenko,
Pakar analisis InstaForex
© 2007-2025

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