empty
21.02.2025 01:34 PM
USD/JPY: Inflation, Kato's Statement, and the Outlook for a Downward Trend

The USD/JPY pair hit a nearly two-month low, reacting to Japan's January inflation report, but then sharply reversed following an unexpected statement from Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato.During Friday's Asian session, the pair dropped to 149.30 (the Kijun-sen line on the weekly chart) as traders reacted to inflation data that exceeded even the most optimistic forecasts. All key components of the report came in stronger than expected, reinforcing concerns about persistent price pressures.

This image is no longer relevant

Despite the strong inflation figures, sellers failed to push USD/JPY below the 149.30 support level and into the 148.00 range. The pair unexpectedly reversed and climbed back to the 150.00 level, largely due to Kato's comments, which put pressure on the yen. This allowed buyers to reclaim part of their lost positions.

However, trusting this rebound may not be advisable. The inflation report will remain a key factor influencing the market, and hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) continue to suggest further rate hikes. Additionally, strong GDP growth in Q4 and expectations for higher wage increases following Japan's spring wage negotiations (Shunto) further bolster the case for a tighter BoJ policy.

According to the latest data, Japan's headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) jumped to 4.0% y/y in January, surpassing forecasts of 3.8%. This marks the strongest inflation rate since January 2023 and the third consecutive month of acceleration.

The core CPI, which excludes fresh food prices, also exceeded expectations, rising to 3.2% y/y (vs. a forecast of 3.1%), reaching its highest level since June 2023. Inflation, excluding both food and energy, accelerated to 2.5% y/y, up from 2.4% in the previous month.

A breakdown of the report shows that electricity costs surged by 18%, while food prices jumped by 7.8%, the highest pace in 15 months. Clothing prices rose 2.8%, household goods increased 3.4%, and transportation and medical services also saw price gains. The only categories that saw slight declines were communication services (-0.3%) and education (-1.1%).

This strong inflation report reinforces the hawkish stance of BoJ policymakers. According to a Reuters survey, nearly 70% of economists expect the BoJ to raise rates by 25 basis points in Q3 2024, likely in May or June. However, this survey was conducted before the latest inflation release, which means market focus will now shift to the March BoJ meeting for potential signals on earlier action.

In addition to inflation, Japan's Q4 GDP data recently showed a 0.7% q/q expansion, the fastest pace since Q2 2023. On an annualized basis, GDP growth hit 2.8%, far exceeding the consensus forecast of 1.0%. These figures suggest that Japan's economy remains resilient, providing further justification for a monetary policy shift.

Kato vs. Takata: Diverging Views on Policy

Had Kato not expressed concerns about higher rates potentially pressuring Japan's financial system, USD/JPY might have already tested the 148.00 support level (lower Bollinger Bands line on the daily chart). However, his comments caused hesitation among yen buyers.

This contradicts the hawkish stance of BoJ board member Hajime Takata, who just two days ago advocated for continued tightening to prevent overheating and excessive price growth. Notably, Takata made these remarks before the inflation data release, suggesting that his next comments might be even more assertive.

Adding to the hawkish sentiment, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda also emphasized today that higher rates in the long run would support financial institutions' profitability, signaling a willingness to gradually normalize monetary policy.

USD/JPY Technical Outlook

Despite the recent bounce, USD/JPY remains in a bearish setup on both the H4 and daily timeframes, staying below the middle and lower Bollinger Bands lines.

On the D1 chart, the Ichimoku indicator continues to show a bearish "Bearish Cross" signal.

Key downward targets remain unchanged:

  • 149.20 (Kijun-sen line on the weekly chart)
  • 148.00 (lower Bollinger Bands line on D1)

The fundamental backdrop favors further downside, reinforcing the case for a continued downtrend in USD/JPY.

Pilih carta masa
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
jam
4
jam
1
hari
1
minggu
Jana pendapatan melalui perubahan kadar mata wang kripto dengan InstaForex.
Muat turun MetaTrader 4 dan buka dagangan pertama anda.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    SERTAI PERADUAN

Artikel yang dicadangkan

Tiada Berita Pun Sudah Merupakan Berita Baik

Perundingan perdagangan antara Amerika Syarikat dan China dijadualkan untuk diteruskan pada hari kedua, kerana kedua-dua pihak berhasrat untuk meredakan ketegangan mengenai eksport teknologi dan unsur nadir bumi. Semalam, wakil-wakil dari

Jakub Novak 11:19 2025-06-10 UTC+2

EUR/USD. Analisis dan Ramalan

Hari ini, pasangan EUR/USD berada di bawah tekanan setelah gagal untuk mengukuh di atas tahap 1.1435 dan menunjukkan penurunan dalam hari ke arah tahap psikologi 1.1400 dan ke bawah

Irina Yanina 10:45 2025-06-10 UTC+2

Pasaran Mengharapkan Kejayaan dalam Rundingan Perdagangan AS-China (Emas dan GBP/USD Mungkin Terus Menurun)

Pasaran hampir-hampir terhenti sepenuhnya sementara menantikan hasil rundingan perdagangan antara wakil China dan Amerika Syarikat. Setakat ini, masih tiada sebarang hasil yang dicapai, dan ini menimbulkan kebimbangan dalam kalangan pelabur

Pati Gani 10:44 2025-06-10 UTC+2

ECB Sedia Menunggu

Euro dan pound kekal dalam julat berbanding dolar AS, mengalami sedikit tekanan susulan hari pertama rundingan antara China dan Amerika Syarikat. Walau bagaimanapun, selain daripada mesyuarat berprofil tinggi yang kini

Jakub Novak 10:27 2025-06-10 UTC+2

Pasaran Menampilkan Bintang Baharu yang Bersinar

Tiada yang kekal selamanya di bawah bulan. Walaupun pasaran maju secara beransur, pelabur sentiasa memantau dengan teliti persaingan di antara syarikat-syarikat paling berharga di dunia. NVIDIA dan Microsoft saling bergilir

Marek Petkovich 09:30 2025-06-10 UTC+2

Apakah yang Perlu Diberikan Perhatian pada 10 Jun? Pecahan Acara Asas kepada Pedagang Baharu

Analisis Laporan Makroekonomi: Hanya beberapa laporan makroekonomi dijadualkan untuk hari Selasa. Kalendar acara ekonomi bagi kedua-dua Zon Euro dan Amerika Syarikat adalah kosong, manakala UK akan menerbitkan laporan-laporan yang sememangnya

Paolo Greco 06:40 2025-06-10 UTC+2

Gambaran Keseluruhan Pasangan GBP/USD – 10 Jun: Ujian Baharu buat Trump

Pasangan mata wang GBP/USD tidak menunjukkan sebarang pergerakan menarik pada hari Isnin. Namun, memandangkan situasi semasa di Amerika Syarikat, sukar untuk membayangkan sebarang pengukuhan bagi dolar. Ternyata bahawa kemerosotan ekonomi

Paolo Greco 04:11 2025-06-10 UTC+2

Tinjauan EUR/USD – 10 Jun: Rusuhan, Protes, Ketidakstabilan

Pada hari Isnin, pasangan mata wang EUR/USD didagangkan dengan sangat perlahan. Ini agak mengecewakan kerana latar belakang berita menjadi semakin menarik setiap hari. Kali ini, berita bukan tentang tarif perdagangan

Paolo Greco 04:11 2025-06-10 UTC+2

EUR/USD: Tenang Sebelum Ribut? Pasaran Menanti Berita dari London

PASANGAN EUR/USD terus berdagang dalam julat harga 100 pip iaitu 1.1350–1.1450, berulang-alik antara sempadannya. Pembeli cuba kekal dalam kawasan 1.14, manakala penjual berhasrat menarik pasangan ini ke arah asas tahap

Irina Manzenko 00:38 2025-06-10 UTC+2

Dolar Mula Menunjukkan Kekuasaannya

Ekonomi yang kukuh bermaksud mata wang yang kukuh. Pada awal bulan Jun, ekonomi AS mula kelihatan kembali mantap. Pergerakan menurun EUR/USD menjangkakan pembetulan dalam arah aliran menaik semasa, yang digalakkan

Marek Petkovich 00:38 2025-06-10 UTC+2
Tidak boleh bertanya sekarang?
Tanya soalan anda di Ruangan bersembang.
Panggilan semula Widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.