empty
02.01.2024 01:02 PM
Deteriorating US labor market will stimulate risk appetite and globally weaken dollar

Global markets open today, albeit not completely. Exchanges in Europe and the US have resumed operations, while the holidays continue in other regions.

Looking at the overall dynamics, investors may continue the bullish momentum noted at the end of last year. The main driver of this will be the expected easing of interest rates by the Fed and other global central banks.

Upcoming economic data, especially those related to the US labor market, will also affect the market's direction. ADP's report on the number of new jobs, which forecasts say will increase to 113,000 in December compared to 103,000 in November, could lead to a decline in dollar because the figure remains very low and the labor market needs a stable number above 200,000. Similarly, although a slight decrease in the number of jobless claims, from 218,000 to 215,000, may be seen, the total number remains above 200,000.

Official data from the US Department of Labor will also attract attention as it will show changes in employment in December, the number of new jobs, the average length of the workweek, and the average hourly earnings. For the number of new jobs, a decrease in growth from 199,000 to 163,000 may occur. The unemployment rate may slightly rise from 3.7% to 3.8%, while the average length of the workweek may remain at 34.4 hours. Hourly earnings may decrease from 0.4% to 0.3%.

A worsening situation in the labor market will be a strong signal for the purchase of risk assets and the weakening of dollar. Such a piece of news can be interpreted by the Fed as an important reason to start lowering interest rates in the first quarter of 2024.

Forecasts for today:

This image is no longer relevant

This image is no longer relevant

EUR/USD:

The pair found support at the level of 1.1000. The worsening situation in the US labor market, as well as the likely resumption of inflation growth in the Eurozone, could be the basis for growth to 1.1130.

GBP/USD

The pair traded at 1.2700. Weakening dollar due to a bleak picture in the US labor market may lead to an increase to 1.2825.

Pati Gani,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

The UK–US Deal Has Been Reached, But Tariffs Remain

Trump's first deal signed. As expected, the UK was the lucky party to sign Donald Trump's first trade deal. Prime Minister Keir Starmer can rightly be considered an outstanding leader—he

Chin Zhao 00:36 2025-06-18 UTC+2

EUR/USD. Caution and Vigilance

The euro-dollar pair remains confined to the 1.15 range, demonstrating a kind of "stoic restraint" against the backdrop of major fundamental developments. Traders purposefully ignore even important data releases

Irina Manzenko 00:35 2025-06-18 UTC+2

The Dollar Gets a Second Chance

The stock market quickly bought the dip. Oil is swinging wildly. Forex appears paralyzed by the unfolding events in the Middle East. Investors are trying to assess the consequences

Marek Petkovich 00:35 2025-06-18 UTC+2

NZD/USD. Analysis and Forecast

At present, NZD/USD is demonstrating moderate activity and attracting buyers. However, a strong continuation of the upward movement has yet to materialize, as the market remains within its familiar weekly

Irina Yanina 20:39 2025-06-17 UTC+2

GBP/USD. Analysis and Forecast

The GBP/USD pair is steadily holding above the key psychological level of 1.3500 ahead of the UK Consumer Price Index release and the upcoming monetary policy meetings of the Federal

Irina Yanina 20:24 2025-06-17 UTC+2

The Kiwi Doesn't Give Up Despite New Zealand's Weak Economy

We previously noted that New Zealand's economy currently appears weak, and recent data has done nothing to challenge that assessment. The PMI indices deteriorated sharply in May, with the manufacturing

Kuvat Raharjo 12:10 2025-06-17 UTC+2

Market may be falling into same trap again

History is repeating itself. Ahead of America's Independence Day, many market participants were saying that Donald Trump's bark was worse than his bite — suggesting the US president issued many

Marek Petkovich 11:07 2025-06-17 UTC+2

Middle East Crisis as a Prelude to Global War... (Limited Downside Possible for Bitcoin and EUR/USD)

The missile standoff between the U.S. proxy Israel and Iran continues. Yesterday's unexpected departure of the U.S. president from the G7 summit in Canada sparked speculation that America might engage

Pati Gani 09:04 2025-06-17 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on June 17? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Only a few macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Tuesday, and none are significant. In the Eurozone, we'll see entirely secondary economic sentiment indexes from the ZEW Institute

Paolo Greco 06:38 2025-06-17 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – June 17: Fed and BoE Meetings as a Reason to Sell the Dollar

On Monday, the GBP/USD currency pair also traded relatively calmly, with a bullish bias. The British pound doesn't reach new three-year highs every day, but looking at almost any higher

Paolo Greco 03:49 2025-06-17 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.