empty
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.
Start as Beginner
How to start trading
Useful information
Training and recordings
InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.
Become Investor
PAMM System
ForexCopy System
Passive investments
Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.
Become Partner
Main Page
Partner Area
Advantages for Affiliates
Registration
This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.
All Promo Campaigns
Bonuses
Contests
Events
Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.
Full details
Forums
We are in social networks
Forex humour
Forex Portal
InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.
Learn More
History
Why Choose Us
InstaSport
Regulation
Company News
Awards
InstaForex Stars
InstaForex Offline
Headquarters
Key documents
Social Responsibility
05.04.2024 10:46 AM
What awaits markets in wake of US nonfarm payrolls
Open trading account Open demo account

Most analysts again predict a deterioration in the labor market in the US, but all their expectations since the beginning of this year have turned out to be greatly underestimated. What kind of data will there be today? The number of new jobs soared from December last year to February. The question is whether there will really be a decline in March.

So, according to the consensus, the US public and private sectors are expected to create 212,000 new jobs in March, up from 275,000 in April. The unemployment rate is also expected to remain unchanged at 3.9%.

In addition to these figures, the average hourly wage will certainly attract attention. It is expected that it will slacken growth to 4.1% in annual terms from 4.3%, but in monthly terms, wages will add 0.3% in March against 0.1% in February.

Now let's look at the possible market reaction to these economic statistics.

As we previously indicated, market participants still want to believe that the Federal Reserve will cut its key interest rate three times this year. Earlier this week, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell again dropped a hint, arguing that the regulator was still waiting for the right moment to start cutting interest rates. You are certainly aware that the main condition for monetary easing should be a steady decline in inflation below 3% to the target level of 2% or close to it, as well as a deterioration in employment and, of course, an increase in wages, which directly stimulates demand for goods and services, boosting inflation acceleration.

But based on current principles for assessing the state of the American labor market, regular monthly job growth above 200,000 indicates good momentum. This, in turn, suggests that demand for goods and services will remain high and maintain inflationary pressure. In this case, the question arises: how the central bank can lower interest rates in such conditions? The logic of assessing the current situation, on the contrary, indicates the need to increase the interest rate by 0.25%. Otherwise, the regulator will simply need to forget about the cherished 2% mark.

If the data turns out to be in line with expectations or higher, this could destroy the Fed's timeline for a rate cut in May. In this case, the central bank will again promise to lower interest rates. But will the market believe it?

At the same time, if by some miracle, the number of new jobs falls below the landmark level of 200,000, then Powell's recent promise to cut interest rates this year will receive good motivational support. In turn, demand for stocks will skyrocket again and the dollar and Treasury yields will fall in parallel.

Time will tell which scenario we will see today.

Intraday forecast

This image is no longer relevant

This image is no longer relevant

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair is consolidating above the support level of 1.2600. If NFPs data shows growth above the forecast, then the instrument may break through this support level and rush towards 1.2530. At the same time, an unexpected decline in the number of new jobs below 200,000 could support GBP/USD and encourage its growth towards 1.2725.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair is also consolidating above 151.00. Negative employment news can put pressure on the instrument. So, the price is likely to drop to 149.85. But, if the number of new jobs increases, then we can expect a local increase in the pair to 153.00.

Pati Gani,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
All Analytics
Fundamental analysis
XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast Gold is declining below the $3300 level today. U.S. PCE data met expectations. A shift in trade flows is helping the U.S. dollar regain positive momentum. This is also undermining
Irina Yanina
17:37 2025-05-30 +02:00
3835
Wave analysis
GBP/USD Analysis on May 30, 2025 The wave structure for GBP/USD continues to indicate the development of an upward impulsive wave pattern. The wave pattern is almost identical to that of EUR/USD. Until February
Chin Zhao
17:31 2025-05-30 +02:00
3055
Breaking Forecast Trading Plan Cryptocurrencies USD/RUB Russian Economy Video Analysis
Trading Instruments
EURUSD GBPUSD USDCHF USDCAD USDJPY AUDUSD EURGBP EURJPY NZDUSD EURNZD Silver Gold #CL #USDX COVID-19 Bitcoin
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Gold is declining below the $3300 level today. U.S. PCE data met expectations. A shift in trade flows is helping the U.S. dollar regain positive momentum. This is also undermining
Irina Yanina 17:37 2025-05-30 UTC+2

Inflation Is Almost Under Control

While the euro continues to hold its ground against the dollar, European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Fabio Panetta indicated during an interview today that inflation in the eurozone
Jakub Novak 13:40 2025-05-30 UTC+2

USD/CAD. Analysis and Forecast

The USD/CAD pair is attempting to regain positive momentum today, though traders remain cautious ahead of the key U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index release. As a preferred inflation
Irina Yanina 13:22 2025-05-30 UTC+2

EUR/USD. Analysis and Forecast

The EUR/USD pair continues to struggle to recover after rebounding from the 1.1200 level reached earlier, showing a moderately negative bias, although the decline remains limited. The U.S. dollar
Irina Yanina 13:19 2025-05-30 UTC+2

Legal Disputes Between Trump and Companies Over Tariffs Will Negatively Impact Markets (There Is a Likelihood of Continued Decline in Bitcoin and Litecoin Prices)

Global markets are significantly influenced by events occurring in the United States, where both political and economic spheres continue to swing like a pendulum. Earlier this week, after the U.S
Pati Gani 11:11 2025-05-30 UTC+2

More Time is Needed

Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan indicated yesterday that it might take some time before policymakers understand how the economy will react to tariffs and other policy changes
Jakub Novak 10:53 2025-05-30 UTC+2

The ECB Should Not Delay Rate Cuts

While the euro is trying to regain its monthly highs after a fairly significant correction seen this week, a survey of several economists shows that the European Central Bank
Jakub Novak 10:49 2025-05-30 UTC+2

Markets Demand an Appeal

The S&P 500 started the day strong but ended on a downbeat note. Initially buoyed by the U.S. Court of International Trade's ruling that the White House's tariffs were illegal
Marek Petkovich 10:33 2025-05-30 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on May 30? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Several macroeconomic reports are set to be released on Friday, but none are deemed particularly significant. In Germany, the inflation report for May will be released, with expectations
Paolo Greco 06:51 2025-05-30 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – May 30: Justice Has Prevailed, but for How Long?

The GBP/USD currency pair closed below the moving average line on Thursday, and the dollar strengthened for three consecutive days. However, everything changed in the second half
Paolo Greco 03:51 2025-05-30 UTC+2

Top analytics

Relevance up to 11:00 2025-06-13 UTC--4
Trading Signals for EUR/USD for May 30, 2025: sell below 1.1350 (21 SMA - 5/8 Murray)
17:33 2025-05-30
Technical analysis
Relevance up to 11:00 2025-06-13 UTC--4
Trading Signals for GOLD for May 30, 2025: buy above $3,281 (200 EMA - 6/8 Murray)
17:35 2025-05-30
Technical analysis
Relevance up to 02:00 2025-06-02 UTC--4
Markets Demand an Appeal
10:33 2025-05-30
Fundamental analysis
Relevance up to 09:00 2025-06-12 UTC--4
Trading Signals for GOLD for May 29-30, 2025: sell below $3,317 (7/8 Murray - 21 SMA)
15:58 2025-05-29
Technical analysis
Relevance up to 10:00 2025-06-03 UTC--4
The Dollar Puts on a Brave Face Amid Adversity
00:50 2025-05-30
Fundamental analysis
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
Callback widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.