empty
21.12.2023 01:12 PM
Forecast for EUR/USD on December 21, 2021

The EUR/USD pair reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar on Wednesday, consolidating below the corrective level of 61.8% (1.0960). Thus, the downward process may continue toward the next Fibonacci level of 50.0% (1.0862). I support the scenario of further decline in the pair, as, judging by the waves, the trend seems to be shifting towards the "bearish" side. However, a firm hold above the level of 1.0960 will indicate that bulls are not ready to retreat fully and may attempt to resume growth towards the level of 1.1035.

This image is no longer relevant

The wave situation is becoming clearer and more favorable. The last downward wave turned out to be relatively weak (compared to the previous upward wave), and the current upward wave has every chance of not surpassing the peak of the previous wave (from December 14). If this scenario unfolds, we will have the first sign of completing the "bullish" trend. In this case, a decline towards the level of 1.0862 should begin, which may only be the start of a prolonged "bearish" trend. This is the scenario I am currently counting on.

On Wednesday, there were a few interesting events in the European Union and the United States. The only U.S. report on the number of new home sales showed a value slightly higher than traders expected for November. However, this report is unimportant, and traders' reactions were practically nonexistent. Thus, this week, I can highlight only two events. The first one is the inflation report in the European Union, which showed a final decrease in November to 2.4% y/y, and the U.S. GDP report for the third quarter, which will be released today in the second half of the day.

As with European inflation, the report on economic growth in the U.S. may not cause a strong reaction. This is not the first estimate of the indicator for the third quarter, and traders are prepared to see +5.2% q/q. If today's report shows a higher or lower value, then bulls or bears will receive minor support. But overall, this week's information background is quite weak, with important reports coming only from the United Kingdom. By the end of the week, trader activity may be relatively low, but I still expect a decline in the pair toward the level of 1.0862. This target already looks quite attractive.

This image is no longer relevant

On the 4-hour chart, the pair rose to the corrective level of 50.0% (1.0957). A firm consolidation of the pair's rate above this level allows counting on further growth towards the next Fibonacci level of 38.2% at 1.1032. Reconsolidation below 1.0957 will again favor the U.S. currency and a fall to the lower line of the ascending trend corridor, which still characterizes traders' sentiment as "bullish." I expect a significant decline in the euro only after consolidating below the ascending trend corridor. Still, even under the current circumstances, a decline towards the lower line of the corridor looks promising. There are no apparent divergences with any indicator today.

Forecast for EUR/USD and trader advice:

What advice can be given to traders today? The rise of the European currency is unlikely. The continuation of the "bullish" trend is also unlikely. The information background could be stronger; the economic events calendar for the EU and the U.S. is practically empty, and traders will find it difficult to find new reasons for buying. Thus, a resumption of the decline towards the level of 1.0862 is likely. A consolidation below the level of 1.0960 can be considered for selling the pair. I consider purchases today impractical and too risky."

Samir Klishi,
Especialista em análise na InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Selecionar intervalo de tempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
dia
1
s.
Ganhe com as variações das taxas das criptomoedas com a InstaForex.
Baixe o MetaTrader 4 e abra a sua primeira operação.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    PARTICIPE DO CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

Previsão para o GBP/USD em 30 de maio de 2025

No gráfico horário, o par GBP/USD caiu para o nível 1,3425 na quinta-feira, depois se recuperou e reverteu a favor da libra esterlina. Isso iniciou um processo de crescimento

Samir Klishi 16:02 2025-05-30 UTC+2

Previsão para o USD/JPY em 30 de maio de 2025

O iene japonês teve uma movimentação significativa ontem, caindo mais de dois dígitos desde a alta do dia até o fechamento. A forte onda de fortalecimento do iene continua hoje

Laurie Bailey 15:04 2025-05-30 UTC+2

GBP/USD. Análise e previsão

O par GBP/USD está atraindo novos vendedores após sua recente recuperação do nível 1,3415, em meio a avanços modestos do dólar americano. No entanto, hoje o potencial para novas quedas

Irina Yanina 14:34 2025-05-30 UTC+2

Sinais de negociação para o OURO para 29-30 de maio de 2025: venda abaixo de $3.317 (7/8 de Murray - SMA 21)

Tecnicamente, o ouro apresenta sinais de sobrecompra. Assim, uma correção nas próximas horas é plausível e pode representar uma boa oportunidade de venda caso o preço permaneça abaixo de 3.335

Dimitrios Zappas 17:40 2025-05-29 UTC+2

Sinais de negociação para o EUR/USD para 29-30 de maio de 2025: venda abaixo de 1,1360 (SMA 21 - 5/8 Murray)

No início da sessão americana, o euro está sendo negociado em torno de 1,1331 e está passando por uma forte recuperação técnica depois de atingir o nível 4/8 de Murray

Dimitrios Zappas 17:39 2025-05-29 UTC+2

Previsão para o EUR/USD para 29 de maio de 2025

Principal notícia do dia: O Tribunal Federal de Comércio dos EUA bloqueou de forma permanente a implementação das tarifas de importação introduzidas pelo ex-presidente Donald Trump, alegando que ele excedeu

Laurie Bailey 17:17 2025-05-29 UTC+2

OURO: Os preços do ouro podem continuar a cair.

Os preços do ouro continuam sob pressão devido ao início de processos legais nos Estados Unidos e ao fortalecimento do dólar no mercado Forex. Ao que tudo indica, uma parcela

Pati Gani 16:10 2025-05-29 UTC+2

Previsão para o EUR/USD em 29 de maio de 2025

Na quarta-feira, o par EUR/USD continuou a cair e se consolidou abaixo da zona de suporte em 1,1260-1,1282. Portanto, a queda de preços de hoje pode continuar em direção

Samir Klishi 15:55 2025-05-29 UTC+2

Previsão para o GBP/USD para 29 de maio de 2025

Após um recuo parcial de três dias, a libra esterlina alcançou o nível de suporte-alvo em 1,3433. No gráfico diário, o oscilador Marlin ainda não tocou a linha inferior

Laurie Bailey 15:10 2025-05-29 UTC+2

Previsão para o AUD/USD para 29 de maio de 2025

O confronto político interno nos Estados Unidos — após a decisão judicial que anulou as tarifas comerciais impostas por Trump — trouxe o dólar australiano de volta à faixa

Laurie Bailey 14:59 2025-05-29 UTC+2
Não pode falar agora?
Faça sua pergunta no chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.