empty
28.05.2024 12:25 AM
The bullish bias is gaining momentum. Overview of GBP/USD

The UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.3% (forecast was 2.2%) in the 12 months to April 2024, down from 3.2% in the 12 months to March. This is the lowest level since July 2021, but despite the sharp drop, it still exceeded the forecast of 2.1%.

The core CPI slowed from 4.2% to 3.9%, also above the forecast of 3.6%, but for the first time since October 2021, the index fell below 4%. The growth in services prices remained high, slightly down from 6.0% to 5.9% year-on-year.

The negative impact of higher inflation was somewhat offset by the retail sales report, which showed a sharp decline in April by -2.3% (expected was -0.4%), indicating a possibility that inflation might significantly decrease in May, potentially bringing the issue of the Bank of England's rate cut back into focus. The problem is that the May inflation data will be released after the BoE's meeting, so the pound will likely reflect the market's reassessment of its outlook in favor of a bullish bias in the coming weeks.

This image is no longer relevant

The key question is whether the BoE will consider the slowdown enough to lower rates at the upcoming meeting on June 20. The chances of this step has understandably decreased; a week ago it was almost 60%, but after the report, it sharply fell to 15%, and expectations for the first rate cut have been pushed to August. The market predictably responded with increased demand for the pound. Now the main question is how sustainable the bullish momentum for the pound is.

Reports on mortgage and consumer lending will be released on Friday, which will likely allow for an adjustment of consumer activity indicators—the main factor driving domestic inflation. If so, the chances of seeing a rate cut on June 20 might increase. For now, it should be assumed that yields in the UK will remain high at least until August, maintaining demand for the pound. The outlook for the pound is bullish.

The fourth consecutive week of buying the British pound has led to a decline in the net short position, with a weekly change of +1.66 billion, the second highest among G10 currencies after the euro. A neutral bias, but the price is sharply rising, indicating that the bullish momentum is quite strong.

This image is no longer relevant

On Monday morning, the pound was trading near the resistance level of 1.2755, which we identified as the nearest target a week ago. We expect the pound to rise further, with a target of 1.2790/2810. The medium-term target shifts to the local high of 1.2892; a consolidation above this level will change the technical outlook for the pound to a more bullish one.

Kuvat Raharjo,
Especialista em análise na InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Selecionar intervalo de tempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
dia
1
s.
Ganhe com as variações das taxas das criptomoedas com a InstaForex.
Baixe o MetaTrader 4 e abra a sua primeira operação.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    PARTICIPE DO CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

Relatório da CFTC: O dólar está sendo vendido novamente. Aguardando novas revelações de Trump

Há cinco semanas, a posição vendida total do dólar americano em relação às principais moedas parou de aumentar, o que deu motivos para acreditar que o dólar poderia iniciar

Kuvat Raharjo 14:32 2025-06-16 UTC+2

EUR/USD. Análise e previsão

Hoje, o par EUR/USD tenta recuperar o impulso positivo, aproximando-se do nível psicológico de 1,1600, próximo das faixas de preço vistas pela última vez em 2021. Os traders aguardam

Irina Yanina 14:25 2025-06-16 UTC+2

GBP/USD. Análise e previsão

Hoje, o par GBP/USD tenta recuperar o impulso positivo, embora permaneça na defensiva. Os traders preferem adotar uma postura cautelosa, aguardando a divulgação de dados econômicos importantes antes de assumir

Irina Yanina 14:20 2025-06-16 UTC+2

O que prestar atenção em 13 de junho? Uma análise dos eventos fundamentais para iniciantes

Vários relatórios macroeconômicos estão programados para sexta-feira, mas duvidamos que os dados tenham um impacto significativo sobre os traders hoje — especialmente hoje. Como lembrete, Donald Trump pretende aumentar

Paolo Greco 20:46 2025-06-13 UTC+2

Trump emitiu um aviso.

Faz menos de duas semanas desde que Donald Trump aumentou as tarifas de importação sobre aço e alumínio para todos os países — com exceção do Reino Unido. Embora

Chin Zhao 18:03 2025-06-13 UTC+2

O dólar foge do campo de batalha

O velho volta a ser novo. A palavra "recessão" voltou a ganhar destaque no mercado Forex e em outros segmentos financeiros. O Índice de Preços ao Consumidor (CPI)

Marek Petkovich 17:23 2025-06-13 UTC+2

Ataque com mísseis israelense ao Irã causará queda nos mercados globais (espero que o Bitcoin e o #NDX retomem sua queda após uma correção local de alta)

Como eu previa, a ausência de um desfecho amplamente positivo nas negociações entre China e Estados Unidos, somada à retomada das pressões inflacionárias, levou a uma forte queda na demanda

Pati Gani 16:47 2025-06-13 UTC+2

A ganância não fará bem ao mercado

Impulsionada por um rali de 21% no índice S&P 500 desde as mínimas de abril, a multidão continua comprando nas correções — indiferente às dificuldades dos Estados Unidos nas negociações

Marek Petkovich 16:24 2025-06-13 UTC+2

USD/CAD. Análise e previsão

O par USD/CAD está apresentando uma recuperação modesta dos níveis abaixo de 1,3600, recuperando a maior parte das perdas do dia anterior, apoiado por uma recuperação do dólar americano. Além

Irina Yanina 14:18 2025-06-13 UTC+2

AUD/JPY. Análise e previsão

O par AUD/JPY permanece sob pressão vendedora pelo terceiro dia consecutivo, tendo atingido uma mínima de quase duas semanas em torno de 92,30 durante a sessão asiática desta sexta-feira. Após

Irina Yanina 14:10 2025-06-13 UTC+2
Não pode falar agora?
Faça sua pergunta no chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.