empty
10.04.2025 03:21 AM
EUR/USD Overview. April 10: From Prince to Pauper

This image is no longer relevant

The EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade higher on Wednesday, once again failing to settle below the moving average line. Donald Trump keeps announcing new tariffs — or previously announced ones go into effect — or trade partners respond with their own tariffs. Every day, we're witnessing more of the same: the dollar falls, stock markets sink, and demand for safe-haven assets rises, clearly reflecting the current market sentiment.

In this article, we'd like to discuss how quickly one can lose the throne. The U.S. economy has long been and remains the largest in the world — and likely will be for quite some time. But the climb to dominance was long and arduous, and everything can be lost quickly. Trump continues to dismantle everything built by his predecessors. This isn't just about a trade war — it's about the global order in which the U.S., the world's largest economy, was at the center. If the U.S. economy was strong, everything else was inevitably tied to it. There's China, Russia, India, the EU, and other major players. But in one way or another, everything revolved around the U.S. That era may soon come to an end.

The U.S. economy was once appealing to investors, but that is no longer the case. The desire to immigrate to America, once a common goal for many, is now changing. Where the economy used to grow steadily from year to year, it may now soon begin to contract. Inflation could rise to 4–5%, and how the Fed will handle it is unclear. In our view, the Fed is in a rather difficult but understandable position. After such an economic disaster, every American will ask: who is to blame? And the answer will be obvious. The Fed can only do what it can — while trying to avoid stepping on "Trump's turf." It risks losing on both fronts if it tries to support the weakening economy at the expense of tolerating high inflation. Meanwhile, Trump can say again that he was right — that rates should've been cut years ago or more aggressively and swiftly.

Thus, the U.S. dollar — which enjoyed dominance for 16 years — may now be sidelined for an extended period. On one hand, the U.S. economy remains strong enough that the dollar may not continue its current rate of decline. On the other hand, everyone in the market understands that things aren't likely to improve anytime soon. So, betting on the dollar's growth in the short term also seems unwise. On higher timeframes, a reversal of global trends has already begun or may be starting. Of course, with Trump's unpredictable nature, everything could change overnight. That's the core problem for traders — Trump is unpredictable, but his actions now dictate a great deal.

This image is no longer relevant

The average volatility of the EUR/USD pair over the last five trading days as of April 10 is 190 pips, which qualifies as "high." On Thursday, we expect the pair to move between 1.0845 and 1.1225. The long-term regression channel is pointing upward, indicating a short-term uptrend. The CCI indicator had entered the overbought zone, signaling a potential start of a correction. However, the trend remains upward for now.

Nearest Support Levels:

S1 – 1.0986

S2 – 1.0864

S3 – 1.0742

Nearest Resistance Levels:

R1 – 1.1108

R2 – 1.1230

R3 – 1.1353

Trading Recommendations:

EUR/USD continues to follow an upward trend. For the past few months, we've consistently said that we expect the euro to fall in the medium term, and that hasn't changed. The dollar still has no reason to decline, aside from Donald Trump. But that reason alone continues to push the dollar into the abyss. This is an unprecedented and rare case in currency markets. Short positions remain attractive, with targets at 1.0315 and 1.0254, but it's extremely difficult to say when the current "Trump-driven" rally will end or how many more tariffs and sanctions the U.S. president may introduce.

If you're trading based purely on technicals, long positions can be considered if the price remains above the moving average, with targets at 1.1108 and 1.1230.

Explanation of Illustrations:

Linear Regression Channels help determine the current trend. If both channels are aligned, it indicates a strong trend.

Moving Average Line (settings: 20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and guides the trading direction.

Murray Levels act as target levels for movements and corrections.

Volatility Levels (red lines) represent the likely price range for the pair over the next 24 hours based on current volatility readings.

CCI Indicator: If it enters the oversold region (below -250) or overbought region (above +250), it signals an impending trend reversal in the opposite direction.

Paolo Greco,
Especialista em análise na InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Selecionar intervalo de tempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
dia
1
s.
Ganhe com as variações das taxas das criptomoedas com a InstaForex.
Baixe o MetaTrader 4 e abra a sua primeira operação.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    PARTICIPE DO CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

Trump não consegue dobrar Powell, mais uma vez

Donald Trump e Jerome Powell se reuniram na Casa Branca na semana passada, em um encontro que passou praticamente despercebido pela imprensa, devido à escassez de detalhes divulgados. Apenas informações

Chin Zhao 19:58 2025-06-05 UTC+2

Em que prestar atenção em 5 de junho? Uma análise dos eventos fundamentais para iniciantes

Há poucos relatórios macroeconômicos estão programados para esta quinta-feira. Apenas dois relatórios secundários, do Reino Unido e dos Estados Unidos, estarão disponíveis para os traders hoje. O relatório sobre

Paolo Greco 19:08 2025-06-05 UTC+2

O mercado encontra o que é bom no que é ruim

Os mercados subiram pelo terceiro dia consecutivo, refletindo uma leitura mais racional da atual conjuntura: um cenário de incerteza comercial generalizada, mas longe de um colapso de mercado. Isso

Marek Petkovich 17:39 2025-06-05 UTC+2

Visão geral do EUR/USD - 5 de junho: Trump continuará pressionando a UE

O par EUR/USD teve um comportamento bastante estável na quarta-feira. Como mencionamos anteriormente, não havia razão para esperar que os índices de atividade empresarial influenciassem significativamente as negociações — especialmente

Paolo Greco 16:49 2025-06-05 UTC+2

USD/JPY. Análise e previsão

Durante a sessão europeia na quinta-feira, o iene japonês manteve a estabilidade, permitindo que o par USD/JPY se mantivesse acima do nível-chave de 143,00, em meio a uma alta moderada

Irina Yanina 15:44 2025-06-05 UTC+2

AUD/JPY. Análise e previsão

Hoje, o par AUD/JPY está atraindo novos compradores. Dados recentes da China, incluindo a pesquisa privada Caixin, indicaram uma aceleração moderada no crescimento do setor de serviços em maio

Irina Yanina 14:50 2025-06-05 UTC+2

USD/CAD. Análise e previsão

O par USD/CAD continua em tendência de queda. Fatores fundamentais sustentam o sentimento pessimista, indicando que o caminho de menor resistência para os preços à vista segue sendo de baixa

Irina Yanina 14:43 2025-06-05 UTC+2

O mercado está jogando um jogo perigoso

Será que o mercado está ouvindo apenas o que quer? Ou estaria apenas jogando o velho jogo de "comprar na baixa"? Segundo a Nomura, quem comprou o S&P 500 cinco

Marek Petkovich 22:03 2025-06-04 UTC+2

O mercado de ações acredita que o jogo de tarifas de Trump não terá um impacto expressivo (o crescimento dos CFDs da #NDX e da #SPX pode continuar)

Após uma queda acentuada — e quase catastrófica — em março e abril, os principais índices de ações dos EUA se recuperaram em maio, compensando integralmente as perdas anteriores

Pati Gani 18:24 2025-06-04 UTC+2

USD/CAD. Análise e previsão

O par USD/CAD continua em consolidação lateral, próximo aos seus níveis mais baixos desde outubro de 2024. Os participantes do mercado aguardam a decisão do Banco do Canadá sobre

Irina Yanina 16:42 2025-06-04 UTC+2
Não pode falar agora?
Faça sua pergunta no chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.