Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the British Pound

The 1.2660 level test coincided with the MACD indicator moving significantly above the zero mark, limiting the pound's upward potential. For this reason, I refrained from selling. After missing the initial upward movement, I capitalized on the rebound at 1.2685, as discussed in detail in my morning forecast, yielding around 20 points of profit.

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) and the RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index are interesting for analysis, but attention will focus on comments from Federal Reserve officials today. Speeches by FOMC members Adriana D. Kugler and Austan D. Goolsbee are expected. There's speculation that a potential rate cut in December could be delayed, which has supported the US dollar recently. Their statements will provide greater clarity on what actions the Federal Reserve may take in the coming weeks. Ultimately, the outlook depends on upcoming inflation and unemployment data, expected in the near term. The likelihood of further rate cuts increases if these indicators meet expectations.

Kugler's and Goolsbee's perspectives will be valuable, not only regarding the Fed's policy but also for their unique analysis and forecasts. Their approaches may offer fresh ideas and highlight the value of diverse perspectives in decision-making.

For intraday strategy, I will focus on Scenarios 1 and 2 for selling.

Buy Signal

Scenario 1: Buy the pound at around 1.2681 (green line on the chart) with a target of 1.2713 (thicker green line on the chart). At 1.2713, I plan to exit purchases and open sales in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 point downward movement. A significant rise in the pound today is only likely following weak US labor market data.Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario 2: I also plan to buy the pound after two consecutive tests of 1.2659, provided the MACD is in the oversold territory. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. The target levels are 1.2681 and 1.2713.

Sell Signal

Scenario 1: Sell the pound after the 1.2659 level is breached (red line on the chart), leading to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.2623, where I plan to exit sales and potentially buy in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20–25 point upward movement. Sellers are likely to take control upon a break of the day's high.Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario 2: I also plan to sell the pound after two consecutive tests of 1.2681, provided the MACD is in the overbought territory. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal downward. The target levels are 1.2659 and 1.2623.

Chart Explanation

• Thin Green Line: Entry price for buying the instrument.
• Thick Green Line: Expected price for Take Profit or manual profit booking, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin Red Line: Entry price for selling the instrument.
• Thick Red Line: Expected price for Take Profit or manual profit booking, as further declines below this level are unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: Entry into the market should be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important Reminder for New Traders

• Exercise caution when making market entry decisions, especially ahead of key reports.
• Refrain from trading during news releases to mitigate the risk of sharp price fluctuations.
• Always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Failure to do so can lead to rapid depletion of your deposit, particularly when trading large volumes without sound money management.
• For successful trading, a well-defined trading plan is essential. Spontaneous decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.